Bloomberg Surveillance 8/31/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 31 августа 2026, 15:05 | 2:24:20 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Bob Elliott — CEO и CIO, Unlimited; бывший член инвестиционного комитета, Bridgewater

Erik Nelson — Macro Strategist, Wells Fargo

Sarah Hunt — Главный рыночный стратег, Alpine Saxon Woods

Paul Sankey — Ведущий аналитик, Sankey Research

CJ Muse — Старший управляющий директор по анализу акций полупроводниковой отрасли, Cantor Fitzgerald

Matthew Diczok — Глава стратегии по инструментам с фиксированной доходностью, Merrill и Bank of America Private Bank

Andrew Hollenhorst — Chief Economist, Piper Sandler

Liz Ann Sonders — Главный инвестиционный стратег, Charles Schwab

Greg Daco — Главный экономист, EY-Parthenon

Janno Lieber — Председатель и генеральный директор, Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)

Blake Gwinn — RBC Capital Markets

The episode debates how markets should interpret Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, with several guests arguing the Fed will hold in September despite rising hike bets. Oil near $90 on renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and the Venezuela deal supports energy and hard asset trades. Nvidia and AI infrastructure remain a core equity focus, while fixed income guests see attractive long-end real yields. The broader tension is that rate hikes may not fix supply-driven inflation. - Bob Elliott says gold and hard assets are outperforming as Fed credibility erodes and policy remains easy. - Erik Nelson likes the yen and euro as the BOJ may hike and U.S. slowdown risk is underpriced. - Sarah Hunt sees AI spending intact and energy becoming investable again on data-center demand. - Paul Sankey calls the Venezuela deal a sideshow, sees oil majors in excellent shape, and sees Chevron as best positioned. - CJ Muse expects AI semiconductor spending to run through at least 2030, with NVIDIA and TSMC supply tight. - Matt Diczok finds long-end Treasury real yields attractive and remains overweight equities. - Several guests argue the Fed should hold because higher rates cannot fix supply-side commodity, tariff, or AI-driven inflation. - Geopolitical tensions keep crude elevated after U.S.-Iran strikes and the announced Venezuela oil agreement.

Идеи

Bob Elliott CEO и CIO, Unlimited; бывший член инвестиционного комитета, Bridgewater 7:24

Hard assets outperform amid Fed credibility erosion

Bob Elliott argues that Fed credibility and broader policymaking institutions are being questioned, while the administration's efforts to keep rates low are instead pushing money into hard assets. He says gold is signaling this loss of credibility and sees an environment where hard assets like gold, oil, and copper outperform soft assets such as bonds and stocks.

COPPER WTI GLD Выс.

Bob Elliott CEO и CIO, Unlimited; бывший член инвестиционного комитета, Bridgewater 11:40

Consumer slowdown may surprise equity market

Bob Elliott believes equity expectations already price very strong earnings growth and that highflying stocks are overextended. He sees under-the-surface consumer weakness in PCE and retail sales, with timely data showing the consumer slowing quickly, which could be a big negative surprise for the equity market in the second half.

Erik Nelson Macro Strategist, Wells Fargo 32:00

Yen and euro can outperform dollar

Erik Nelson sees the Bank of Japan delivering and sounding hawkish while the Fed does not hike, with FX markets under-pricing that relative shift. He also sees European growth surprises improving and foreign investors under-hedged on U.S. assets, so he prefers the euro and Japanese yen as alternatives to the dollar.

Sarah Hunt Главный рыночный стратег, Alpine Saxon Woods 55:47

Nvidia signals AI spending not slowing

CJ Muse argues AI infrastructure spending is durable through at least 2030. TSMC is effectively sold out until 2029, memory is similarly tight, and NVIDIA can only meet about 70% of 2027 demand. If this cycle extends beyond 2028, semiconductor stocks are incredibly cheap.

Sarah Hunt Главный рыночный стратег, Alpine Saxon Woods 68:44

Data centers make energy investable again

Paul Sankey says U.S. oil companies have never been in better shape in terms of management and strategy, are disciplined on capex, making large profits in refining and upstream, and oil has been the best-performing sector this year. He also notes oil demand has not cratered despite elevated prices.

Paul Sankey Ведущий аналитик, Sankey Research 79:24

Chevron best positioned for Venezuela deal

Paul Sankey argues the Venezuela deal is specifically good for Chevron because Chevron never left Venezuela, does not carry the same legal baggage as Exxon, and is seeing volumes grow rapidly there. Chevron is best positioned among the majors for that agreement.

CJ Muse Старший управляющий директор по анализу акций полупроводниковой отрасли, Cantor Fitzgerald 124:48

AI semiconductor spend runs through 2030

CJ Muse Старший управляющий директор по анализу акций полупроводниковой отрасли, Cantor Fitzgerald 126:17

MediaTek is Nvidia's physical AI partner

CJ Muse says NVIDIA's $3.5 billion investment in MediaTek makes perfect sense because MediaTek is basically NVIDIA's physical AI partner. The deal supports NVIDIA's ecosystem and custom silicon strategy, giving MediaTek a differentiated role in the AI buildout.

Matthew Diczok Глава стратегии по инструментам с фиксированной доходностью, Merrill и Bank of America Private Bank 139:03

Long-end real yields are attractive

Matt Diczok is comfortable with the long end of the Treasury market because real yields are attractive, around 3% on 30-year TIPS and close to 2.5% on 10s. He argues these inflation-adjusted yields offer a real hedge to equity risk and can diversify portfolios if investors think in years.

Matthew Diczok Глава стратегии по инструментам с фиксированной доходностью, Merrill и Bank of America Private Bank 140:33

Munis offer high tax-adjusted yields

Matt Diczok points out that municipal bonds offer around 4.75% nominal yield, which can equal roughly 9.5% tax-adjusted yield for investors in a high tax bracket. He sees that as attractive compensation over inflation and a reasonable long-term diversifier.