PRICKLY BEAR
Спикеры
Kevin Muir
— Ведущий, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna
— Специалист по деривативам, MacroVoices
Patrick and Kevin discuss the US Treasury bond-market intervention, the global bond selloff, the weaker dollar, and the immediate knock-on moves in gold and crypto. Patrick walks through technical and COT positioning setups in Treasuries, copper, natural gas, uranium, grains and crude oil. The overall tone is cautious on the dollar, bullish on gold and commodity breakouts, but wary of semiconductor and Mag 7 follow-through as well as very low volatility into an event-heavy autumn.
- The US Treasury intervention is small in size but signals discomfort with rising long-term yields.
- Kevin sees a supply-driven rise in long-dated yields as rational and not a crisis.
- Patrick sees extreme short positioning in 30-year Treasury futures that could create a squeeze.
- The dollar bull breakout is neutralized; Kevin reads the Treasury move as bearish for the dollar.
- Gold breaks out decisively while silver and platinum still lagging.
- Nvidia's blowout earnings fail to ignite broad semiconductor and Mag 7 follow-through.
- VIX is very low despite near-term FOMC, opex and election risk.
- Copper is crowded but still bullish; natural gas is hated and has short-squeeze potential.
- Uranium, grains and fertilizer stocks break out; crude oil is seen as supported in an 80-90 range with energy stocks preferred.
Идеи
Avoid long-dated government bonds.
Massive global bond supply from US deficits, AI capex and geopolitics is overwhelming buyers, so rising long-dated yields are a rational normalization of term premium rather than a crisis; investors should not fight this supply-driven backdrop by owning long-duration government bonds.
Watch for Treasury bond short squeeze.
Managed money and large speculators are extremely short 30-year Treasury futures after yields hit decade highs; the Treasury intervention may trigger a positioning squeeze if the long bond breaks its 50-day moving average, independent of fundamentals.
Dollar bull breakout is neutralized.
After the Bessent announcement, his currency-whisperer contact signaled 'game on' as a US dollar bear; the Treasury is seen playing with fire by suppressing rates, making this a clear signal to sell US dollars.
Buy gold, sell Treasuries.
If the Treasury is playing games to suppress rates, the natural response is to sell Treasuries and buy gold; he suspects the Greenwich crowd did exactly this, and central-bank diversification since the Russian reserve freeze reinforces gold's secular bull case.
Buy gold, sell Treasuries.
If the Treasury is playing games to suppress rates, the natural response is to sell Treasuries and buy gold; he suspects the Greenwich crowd did exactly this, and central-bank diversification since the Russian reserve freeze reinforces gold's secular bull case.
Wait for silver/platinum confirmation.
Silver is catching up but still lagging, while platinum and other precious metals are only getting tailwind; he is waiting for them to get hot as confirmation of another broad precious metals bull leg.
Crypto no longer bearish.
Crypto's explosive bounce looks like a short squeeze but has destroyed the bear trend; although he doesn't like the asymmetry of buying at 80,000, it can no longer be called bearish and crypto/gold assets may remain leaders into year-end if pullbacks are bought aggressively.
Nvidia growth extends AI cycle.
Nvidia's earnings and guidance blew away expectations and, by saying only supply constraints limited growth, they pushed out the cyclical-end question; the stock gapped higher and may run toward 240-250 or a $6 trillion market cap.
Broader semis not confirming Nvidia.
Despite Nvidia's blowout, the broader semiconductor complex is not responding strongly; SMH is only at its 50-day and AMD/MU/Intel/hyperscalers are flat or down, which raises risk that the semiconductor top is already in if the lack of follow-through persists.
S&P needs Mag 7 participation.
The S&P and Nasdaq have bullish flag/continuation setups and near-term path of least resistance may be higher, but S&P 8,000 likely requires Mag 7 participation; if Mag 7 names cannot rally after Nvidia's news, the market is vulnerable later in Q4.
Volatility hedging is too cheap.
With FOMC, opex and the election only 30 days away, VIX is at its year low and the three-month VIX collapsed after Nvidia; this extreme lack of hedging demand makes cheap volatility protection attractive, summarized as buying straw hats in winter.
Copper crowded but still bullish.
Copper is at 99th/100th percentile large-spec positioning with long specs doing the buying, not short covering; the crowding reflects genuine tightness but can persist, and copper is toying with 52-week highs with room to 7.25 on the upside.
Freeport breakout targets 85-90.
Freeport-McMoRan has broken out of a five-to-six-month sideways range to new 52-week highs; the path toward 85-90 is underway as copper equities finally join the commodity rally.
Natural gas squeeze potential builds.
Natural gas positioning is at the zero percentile with gross short contracts at five-year highs; while that does not guarantee a turn, the hated market has the ingredients for a violent widowmaker short squeeze, especially in the January winter gas contract.
Uranium technical breakout underway.
Uranium flatlined for five months, then broke out almost tick-for-tick with gold's reversal; the technical breakout suggests a new uranium bull market may be underway, though the gold correlation could eventually break.
Grains breakout; buy dips.
Wheat, corn and soybeans have broken out decisively; even after two strong weeks, longer-term monthly charts show room for 30-40% higher in wheat if the breakout is real, though tactically he prefers buying dips after profit-taking.
Fertilizer/ag stocks turning higher.
Beaten-up agricultural commodity stocks are turning: Mosaic's bear market may have reversed, Nutrien has broken out, and Intrepid Potash is breaking out, supporting a surprise bull market in forgotten commodity equities.
Oil floor near 80-90.
Oil is unlikely to sink below $70 sustainably; the fair-value shelf is probably $80-90 with outliers to $100 if conditions warrant. Positioning shows shorts are still short and longs never rebuilt, so selloffs have no one to shake out and downside risk looks limited.
Own energy stocks over oil.
Energy equities are structurally bullish because a higher oil shelf means cash flows are being repriced as sustainably profitable; he says you have to be super bullish energy stocks, which could have another 30% run this year, rather than neutral oil itself.
Далее
This The Market Huddle video, published August 30, 2026, features Kevin Muir, Patrick Ceresna discussing Long-Dated Government Bonds, ZB, UUP, TLT, GLD, SILVER, PPLT, BTC, NVDA, SMH, SPY, VIX, COPPER, FCX, NG_F, URANIUM, WEAT, CORN, SOYB, NTR, IPI, MOS, WTI, XLE. 19 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Kevin Muir, Patrick Ceresna · Tickers: Long-Dated Government Bonds, ZB, UUP, TLT, GLD, SILVER, PPLT, BTC, NVDA, SMH, SPY, VIX, COPPER, FCX, NG_F, URANIUM, WEAT, CORN, SOYB, NTR, IPI, MOS, WTI, XLE