CO COCOA Cocoa Futures Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

Ghana's cocoa harvest is expected to drop 13% next season because of adverse weather, black pod disease, and El Niño risk, with similar supply problems in Ivory Coast, Cameroon, and Nigeria, supporting cocoa prices.

Cocoa also looks tight, implying limited supply cushion and upside price risk as El Niño weather stress develops.

Agricultural commodities and softs, including wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, sugar, and coffee, are showing technical breakouts that could signal a new bull market.

A severe El Nino is developing and is focused on West Africa, which produces about 60% of the world's cocoa beans; cocoa is already moving up only in response to the supply threat.

The worst El Nino in 50 years is hitting West Africa, which produces 60% of the world's cocoa beans. This massive supply shock is driving cocoa prices significantly higher.

Cocoa positioning has collapsed to net short levels among large specs, the lowest in five years, after a brutal multi-year bear market. Price is now turning higher and dips are being bought, but speculative longs have not yet rebuilt. This sets up a potential squeeze and a new bull trend as fundamentals tighten.

Cocoa has been in a sustained downtrend; the models have been short for a long time and the trend continues to work well.

The declared El Niño is causing extreme weather, with heavy rainfall in West Africa (Ivory Coast, Ghana) threatening cocoa production and concerns in Brazil over Arabica coffee. Supply disruptions are driving price volatility and higher prices.

1. THE FACT: @dampedspring "got roasted for saying the rebalance trade in commodities which ends today was not impactful." Others suggested "BUY cocoa as the flow was a massive 20% of OI buy. SELL silver and gold because the flow was a large sell." 2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker's stance is that the rebalance trade was "not impactful," directly contradicting the view that cocoa should be bought due to large buying flow. This implies that the expected price movement from the rebalance might not materialize as strongly as others predict. 3. THE VERDICT: Neutral on cocoa, despite others calling for a long based on rebalance flows, as the speaker believes the rebalance impact is overstated.