CNY Chinese Yuan Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков
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Лента
04:40
02 сен
02 сен
CNY policy mechanics analysis, no directional call
Discusses historical CNY pressure dynamics and PBOC signaling mechanisms, comparing 2015 episode to 2023/24 stabilization, no explicit current directional position.
Сред.
03:56
02 сен
02 сен
China's fix maintenance stabilized CNY post-2022
Author explains China's RMB stabilization mechanism: maintaining the fix band and signaling no further depreciation helped stabilize CNY post-2022, implying policy tools remain available and effective for currency management.
Выс.
03:06
02 сен
02 сен
Stronger fix creates self-reinforcing CNY appreciation pressure
The author argues the PBOC's daily fix has greater influence on CNY direction than critics suggest, as a stronger fix triggers exporter conversion, creating self-reinforcing appreciation pressure through actual settlement flows.
Сред.
19:36
01 сен
01 сен
RMB undervalued by over 30%
Author provides detailed calculations supporting a view that the renminbi is undervalued by over 30%, implying a bullish long-term re-rating expectation for the currency.
Сред.
20:05
31 авг
31 авг
Author discusses China price dynamics and CNY exchange rate effects on real versus nominal.
Author discusses China price dynamics and CNY exchange rate effects on real versus nominal moves, but expresses no trade position.
Низ.
17:44
31 авг
31 авг
Brad Setser challenges the premise of US dollar devaluation against the yuan.
Brad Setser challenges the premise of US dollar devaluation against the yuan, questioning how it works if the PBOC controls the fix, a policy debate without a trade position.
Низ.
17:42
31 авг
31 авг
PBOC fix drives CNY movements, author asks questions
Author questions who manages USD/CNY, implying PBOC intervention via daily fix, but offers no directional trade stance on the currency pair.
Низ.
17:24
31 авг
31 авг
The author challenges a macro claim about US hegemony by questioning who sets the yuan fix.
The author challenges a macro claim about US hegemony by questioning who sets the yuan fix and noting $500B of FX purchases, but expresses no directional position.
Низ.
16:56
31 авг
31 авг
Author analyzes historical CNY undervaluation and dollar depreciation dynamics.
Author analyzes historical CNY undervaluation and dollar depreciation dynamics, expressing concern about US savings and debt-financed data center boom without taking a current position.
Низ.
13:34
31 авг
31 авг
Stronger PBOC fix pushes yuan stronger
Long the yuan because a stronger PBOC fix drives corporate FX conversion flows that sustain CNY appreciation.
Выс.
12:48
31 авг
31 авг
CNY undervalued, manipulation signals appreciation
Author asserts CNY is undervalued, implying appreciation potential as manipulation via fx settlement is evident, though no direct tradeable instrument or entry specified.
Сред.
12:46
31 авг
31 авг
CNY policy debate, no directional commitment
Discusses policy options for CNY appreciation versus protectionism risks; no directional trade commitment, flags China's export wave sustainability concerns.
Низ.
10:40
31 авг
31 авг
CNY/USD managed by China; no directional view
Explains CNY/USD is managed by China, so USD weakness can weaken CNY; no directional call.
Низ.
19:09
30 авг
30 авг
Stronger CNY would slow exports and growth.
Author notes a stronger CNY would slow exports/growth and sees this as positive pressure for internal consumption; no explicit trade position stated.
Низ.
10:36
30 авг
30 авг
The author debates methodology for estimating China's current account surplus and CNY.
The author debates methodology for estimating China's current account surplus and CNY undervaluation, but expresses no personal position or trade call.
Низ.
10:15
30 авг
30 авг
The author argues CNY undervaluation is relative to a basket, not all Asian pairs.
The author argues CNY undervaluation is relative to a basket, not all Asian pairs, and notes JPY/TWD/KRW appreciation would increase CNY undervaluation, a factual exchange-rate analysis without a trade position.
Низ.
00:20
30 авг
30 авг
CNY purchases constrained by PBOC consent and capital controls
Discusses structural constraints on foreign reserve managers buying CNY without PBOC consent, noting capital account restrictions and China's ability to offset flows; no directional trade view expressed.
Низ.
17:11
29 авг
29 авг
China should allow CNY appreciation to avoid structural tariffs.
Brad Setser suggests China may rationally choose CNY appreciation as a strategic hedge against broader, embedded tariffs on Chinese content in global supply chains, contrasting current conditions with the post-2017 tariff environment.
Сред.
17:05
29 авг
29 авг
China controls CNY, could follow dollar down
Author explains China's control over CNY policy, including historical precedent of CNY following USD depreciation, implying potential real depreciation dynamics under US pressure for dollar weakness.
Низ.
17:02
29 авг
29 авг
IMF finds CNY undervalued by over 20% and Trump tariffs are below Busan levels.
IMF finds CNY undervalued by over 20% and Trump tariffs are below Busan levels, but the author only discusses policy adjustment needs without taking a position.
Низ.
13:37
28 авг
28 авг
Dollar erodes; yuan and euro gain share
The dollar's reserve currency status faces long-run erosion: China will gain a larger share of the reserve currency market and the euro benefits as U.S. sanctions push others away, but the biggest 5-10 year threat is internal because the U.S. is not prepared to balance its budget.
Сред.
01:38
26 авг
26 авг
China's yuan strengthens to 6.7051 per dollar, its highest level in over three years.
01:37
26 авг
26 авг
China's onshore yuan strengthens to 6.7051 per dollar, its highest level since February 2, 2023.
01:19
26 авг
26 авг
China sets yuan midpoint 663 pips below estimate.
China sets yuan midpoint 663 pips below estimate, marking the biggest weak-side deviation since February 27, 2026.
19:27
21 авг
21 авг
Author questions the mechanism behind CNY settlement spikes relative to the fix.
Author questions the mechanism behind CNY settlement spikes relative to the fix, probing intervention dynamics without stating a directional position.
Низ.
19:14
21 авг
21 авг
Author analyzes China's currency management and settlement balance spikes during appreciation.
Author analyzes China's currency management and settlement balance spikes during appreciation pressure, describing intervention dynamics without taking a directional position.
Низ.
17:48
18 авг
18 авг
Brad_Setser argues the balance of payments shows CNY appreciation reduced offshore FX holding.
Brad_Setser argues the balance of payments shows CNY appreciation reduced offshore FX holding incentives, slowing external asset buildup, a macro observation without a trade call.
Низ.
15:09
17 авг
17 авг
The author discusses the RMB's impact on trade flows and potential to push China toward.
The author discusses the RMB's impact on trade flows and potential to push China toward pro-consumption stimulus, but frames it as a policy observation rather than a trade position.
Низ.
07:17
17 авг
17 авг
Yen has more upside than yuan.
Beijing is likely to limit yuan appreciation to preserve export competitiveness, while the yen has more room to appreciate versus the yuan. This supports a relative yen-vs-yuan appreciation trade even if the yuan only strengthens marginally against the dollar.
Сред.
05:07
17 авг
17 авг
Author discusses how a 10% real CNY move translates to USD terms depending on Asian currency.
Author discusses how a 10% real CNY move translates to USD terms depending on Asian currency correlations, a technical macro analysis without a directional position.
Низ.
Об аналитическом покрытии CNY
Buzzberg отслеживает CNY (Chinese Yuan) в 11 источниках. Бычьих сигналов: 37, медвежьих: 2, от 30 аналитиков. Сентимент преимущественно бычий (24%). Всего отслеживается 146 торговых идей. За последние 7 дней: бычьих: 4, наблюдение: 17. Последние спикеры: Brad Setser, Kenneth Rogoff, FirstSquawk.