u/miguel_equivara

Sea Limited’s FCF swung from -$1.9B to +$4.4B, net income turned positive, and revenue growth is ~47% while the stock is down 40% from highs. This combination of improving profitability, continued growth, and a ~11x forward EV/EBITDA vs MELI’s ~21x suggests a rerating opportunity if the market recognizes the comparable business quality. Position for long-term value convergence as Shopee scales, Monee expands fintech income, and Garena continues funding growth. Competitive pressure from TikTok Shop and MercadoLibre in Brazil could hurt margins; credit quality in Monee could deteriorate; Southeast Asia growth could slow. No other actionable trade ideas explicitly stated in the post.

Azure revenue grew ~40%, AI run rate jumped from $13B to $37B, committed backlog reached $627B; capex is growth‑oriented, not maintenance. Market penalizing Microsoft for building its next moat, mirroring Amazon’s pattern; owner’s earnings (ex‑growth capex) show ~21x earnings, not 39x FCF. DCF base case implies ~45% upside; current sell‑off creates a long‑term buying opportunity. OpenAI concentration (45% of backlog), capex may not normalize as assumed, AI competition or slowing Azure growth could undermine thesis.

Operating margin dropped from 13.5% to 6.9% largely due to upfront loan loss provisions on a credit book that doubled to $14.6B; revenue still grew 49% and absolute operating income rose. Once the credit book stabilizes or grows more slowly, provisioning as a percentage of revenue will normalize, releasing earnings—similar to Klarna’s accounting dynamic. The market is pricing a high-growth fintech/e-commerce leader like a stagnant retailer. The dip reflects a temporary accounting distortion and deliberate reinvestment, not fundamental deterioration. With a PEG below 1 and historical EV/sales of ~10x vs current ~3x, the risk/reward is asymmetric for a long-term compounder. Credit defaults could rise if LatAm economy deteriorates (though provisions already account for expected losses). Competition from Shopee/Temu could pressure market share or force further margin-diluting investments. FX volatility in Argentina/Brazil.

SoFi has demonstrated nine consecutive profitable quarters, with GAAP net income reaching $174M in Q4 2025. Revenue is diversifying away from lending, with ~50% now from Financial Services and Tech Platform segments. The market has undervalued this fundamental shift due to the "dead" student loan narrative. The company's product moat and deposit-funded model create a scalable, less cyclical platform with a long growth runway. The business is stronger and more profitable than the sentiment suggests. At a P/B of ~2.2x, it is not excessively valued for a scaling platform, presenting a long-term compounding opportunity. Deteriorating credit quality in a weak macro environment, high stock-based compensation, and execution risk in maintaining growth and margin expansion.

NU is a fundamentally strong, high-growth financial compounder trading at a discount to its historical average and future potential, with major growth catalysts in Mexico, Colombia, and the US not yet priced in. NU grew revenue from $1.7B (2021) to $16.3B (2025), maintains 30%+ ROE, and trades at 24x trailing P/E, 68% below its 3-year historical average of 70x P/E. The market is undervaluing the future revenue runway from ARPAC increases, geographic expansion (Mexico banking license, US OCC approval), and the lagging effect of a rapidly compounding lending book. At $14/share (~$69B market cap), the stock offers a favorable risk/reward for a company in the "middle innings" of its growth story. The author is actively adding to the position. BRL/USD FX exposure, a deterioration in Brazilian consumer credit (NPLs), and execution risk in the competitive US market.

SNOW has dropped to ~$153, yet FY26 product revenue grew 30% YoY and RPO accelerated to 42% YoY growth. The market is pricing the stock as if growth is dying, but accelerating RPO, 125% NRR, and inflecting AI consumption indicate a durable, compounding growth engine. Start a small position now and scale in through 2026 as the company confirms execution. High valuation (12x forward revenue, high SBC) and intense competition from Databricks and hyperscalers (AWS, Google, Azure).