MELI: Revenue Up 49%, Stock Down 40% — in a High-Growth Stock is the Dip an Entry Point?
u/miguel_equivara ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 11, 2026 at 15:35
· ⬆ 23 pts
· 💬 15 comments
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Summary
Post analyzes MercadoLibre (MELI) after a ~40% decline, arguing the margin compression is misunderstood: it stems from upfront loan provisioning on a rapidly growing credit book and deliberate reinvestment in logistics/pricing to fend off competitors.
Author’s thesis: MELI is a proven LatAm compounder trading at a trough multiple (~3x EV/sales, PEG <1) with ~49% revenue growth, making the dip an attractive entry point.
Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with quantitative backing (operating margin breakdown, credit book growth, valuation multiples) and clear accounting nuance; not noise.
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Been digging into MercadoLibre after the selloff and the setup is hard to ignore. The stock's down \~40% to near a 52 week low, and everyone's fixated on the margin cause operating margin fell from 13.5% to 6.9% in about a year. I think that's being misread.
Two thirds of that drop is just the cost of reserving against a credit book that nearly doubled (+87% to $14.6B). MELI books the expected loss the moment it writes a loan; the interest income arrives over the following months, so a fast growing book looks unprofitable today even as each cohort seasons into profit. It's the same accounting Klarna spelled out for its own loan book on Q1 2026, provision the loss upfront, book the revenue over the life of the loan, so a rising provision line on a fast-growing book doesn't mean rising defaults.
The rest is a deliberate Brazil free-shipping cut and a first-party inventory push to fight off Shopee and Temu. Through all of it, revenue still grew 49% and operating income still grew in absolute dollars. That's reinvestment, not deterioration and MELI ran the same play in 2016 to build the logistics lead it has today.
Meanwhile, with margins sitting at a deliberate trough, the stock trades at:
* \~3x EV/sales, vs a \~10x historical average
* a forward P/E in the low-30s, vs a 62x peak last October
* a PEG below 1, on revenue growing \~49%
The market's pricing a near 50% grower like a slow retailer whose best days are behind it.
I won't pretend it's as good as catching a company right at its first profit print (Chime recently after Q1 2026 earnings) that's the real asymmetry. This is the second best setup: a dip in a proven compounder that dominates LatAm e-commerce and fintech.
Curious if anyone else has been looking at it. Am I missing something obvious on the credit risk? Would you buy it at $1600?
Disclosure: This is my personal thesis, not investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. Do your own research and size positions according to your own risk tolerance
Operating margin dropped from 13.5% to 6.9% largely due to upfront loan loss provisions on a credit book that doubled to $14.6B; revenue still grew 49% and absolute operating income rose. Once the credit book stabilizes or grows more slowly, provisioning as a percentage of revenue will normalize, releasing earnings—similar to Klarna’s accounting dynamic. The market is pricing a high-growth fintech/e-commerce leader like a stagnant retailer. The dip reflects a temporary accounting distortion and deliberate reinvestment, not fundamental deterioration. With a PEG below 1 and historical EV/sales of ~10x vs current ~3x, the risk/reward is asymmetric for a long-term compounder. Credit defaults could rise if LatAm economy deteriorates (though provisions already account for expected losses). Competition from Shopee/Temu could pressure market share or force further margin-diluting investments. FX volatility in Argentina/Brazil.
This Reddit post, published June 11, 2026,
features u/miguel_equivara
discussing MELI.
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