MELI: Revenue Up 49%, Stock Down 40% — in a High-Growth Stock is the Dip an Entry Point?

u/miguel_equivara · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · June 11, 2026 at 15:35 · ⬆ 23 pts · 💬 15 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Summary

  • Post analyzes MercadoLibre (MELI) after a ~40% decline, arguing the margin compression is misunderstood: it stems from upfront loan provisioning on a rapidly growing credit book and deliberate reinvestment in logistics/pricing to fend off competitors.
  • Author’s thesis: MELI is a proven LatAm compounder trading at a trough multiple (~3x EV/sales, PEG <1) with ~49% revenue growth, making the dip an attractive entry point.
  • Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with quantitative backing (operating margin breakdown, credit book growth, valuation multiples) and clear accounting nuance; not noise.
Score 23
Comments 15
Upvote % 90%
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u/miguel_equivara Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Operating margin dropped from 13.5% to 6.9% largely due to upfront loan loss provisions on a credit book that doubled to $14.6B; revenue still grew 49% and absolute operating income rose. Once the credit book stabilizes or grows more slowly, provisioning as a percentage of revenue will normalize, releasing earnings—similar to Klarna’s accounting dynamic. The market is pricing a high-growth fintech/e-commerce leader like a stagnant retailer. The dip reflects a temporary accounting distortion and deliberate reinvestment, not fundamental deterioration. With a PEG below 1 and historical EV/sales of ~10x vs current ~3x, the risk/reward is asymmetric for a long-term compounder. Credit defaults could rise if LatAm economy deteriorates (though provisions already account for expected losses). Competition from Shopee/Temu could pressure market share or force further margin-diluting investments. FX volatility in Argentina/Brazil.
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This Reddit post, published June 11, 2026, features u/miguel_equivara discussing MELI. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/miguel_equivara  · Tickers: MELI