Сигналы
30
#293
Альфа-оценка 77.1
Ben Carlson
Директор по институциональному управлению активами, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Винрейт
50.0%
доходность
+4.3%
Загрузка графиков...
Тикер
Сторона
Упоминания
Первый колл
Цена колла
P&L
Тезис
Тема
Источник
Лонг
04 фев
$674.17
+13.0%
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
03 июн
$98.48
-1.7%
For the bond portion of a 60/40 portfolio, use short-term TIPS (STIP) for inflation protection, short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-3 year bonds via SHY) for nominal safety, and a core total bond fund (AGG) as a recession hedge. Avoid high-yield bonds (JNK) because they have equity-like risk, as shown by large drawdowns.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
25 фев
$43.44
+1.5%
The prevailing doom narrative is that AI destroys jobs and income, crushing the economy. If AI is deflationary and replaces digital labor, the "Physical World" becomes the primary store of value. Furthermore, if AI causes deflation, the Fed will cut rates and the government may print money, both of which historically cause housing prices to skyrocket. Real Estate is the "best AI hedge" because it cannot be digitized or automated away. Mass unemployment (10%+) leads to mortgage defaults and a housing crash (the specific bear case cited in the Catrini piece).
The prevailing doom narrative is that AI destroys jobs and income, crushing the economy. If AI is deflationary and replaces digital labor, the "Physical World" becomes the primary store of value. Furthermore, if AI causes deflation, the Fed will cut rates and the government may print money, both of which historically cause housing prices to skyrocket. Real Estate is the "best AI hedge" because it cannot be digitized or automated away. Mass unemployment (10%+) leads to mortgage defaults and a housing crash (the specific bear case cited in the Catrini piece).
Тематические ETF
Лонг
17 фев
$91.87
+3.8%
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
11 фев
$104.94
+1.5%
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
04 фев
$332.20
+13.0%
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
26 авг
$83.29
-1.8%
The risk/reward trade-off in bonds is currently heavily skewed to the upside. If rates fall 1%, investors can make 12% to 21% on long-term treasuries, but if rates rise 1%, the losses are capped at 2% to 8%. Furthermore, fears of a US government debt crisis are overblown and more political than financial. Bonds are currently the most hated asset class, presenting a strong contrarian opportunity, and they serve as an excellent hedge if AI capex pulls back and stocks fall.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
19 авг
$107.02
-0.1%
With inflation remaining sticky and government spending continuing, securing a 3% real yield on 20- or 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) represents a massive buying opportunity that the market is currently ignoring due to recent fixed income volatility.
Облигации и ставки
Лонг
12 авг
$91.02
+4.5%
Ben cites Bill Bernstein's framework: putting 5-10% of a portfolio into a highly volatile, lower-return asset such as a precious metals equities fund can improve overall portfolio outcomes through rebalancing and correlation benefits. The volatility itself can reduce total portfolio volatility when systematically rebalanced.
Тематические ETF
Лонг
01 июл
$299.36
-2.9%
The Russell 2000 is up over 22% YTD with 67% of names positive and a median return above 15%. This broad participation across 900 stocks with 20%+ gains signals a significant market widening beyond mega-caps, which is very healthy for the bull market.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
26 июн
$153.99
+3.4%
Global diversification protects against country-specific disasters; even with Japan's epic bubble and 35-year recovery, an investor in the MSCI ACWI still earned around 8% annually, demonstrating the power of owning a global index.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
24 июн
$74.86
+2.6%
Международные акции, особенно на развивающихся рынках, таких как Южная Корея и Тайвань, участвуют в ИИ-тренде и в этом году показывают лучшие результаты, чем рынок США. Увеличение доли международных акций сейчас имеет смысл в качестве тактического распределения активов, пока распространение преимуществ ИИ идет на пользу остальному миру.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
24 июн
$72.57
+11.0%
Netflix переживает непростой переход от акции роста к стоимостной акции. Бен Карлсон владеет ею, чувствует себя комфортно с этой позицией, несмотря на падение на 30%, и готов докупать при дальнейшем снижении, поскольку верит, что переход к стоимостной модели в конечном итоге сыграет в пользу акций.
Стриминг
Лонг
17 июн
$69.50
-4.5%
Акции развивающихся рынков выросли на 26% с начала года, при этом рост прибыли значительно опережает другие регионы, что в значительной степени обусловлено технологическими компаниями Кореи и Тайваня, связанными с ИИ (например, SK Hynix, Samsung). Индекс развивающихся рынков сместился с доминирования Китая к лидерству Кореи и Тайваня, что сделало развивающиеся рынки неожиданным крупным победителем эпохи ИИ, демонстрируя силу диверсификации.
Фондовые индексы
Лонг
17 июн
$90.42
+0.3%
Европейские акции предлагают диверсификационный хедж против концентрированной торговли ИИ в США. В них значительно занижена доля технологического сектора и меньше ценовой перегрев, поэтому они, вероятно, упадут меньше в случае снижения S&P 500, выступая в качестве тихой гавани во время шторма.
Фондовые индексы
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У Ben Carlson на Buzzberg отслеживается 30 торговых идей по 30 тикерам с февраля 2026. винрейт 50% по 30 оцененным сигналам, средняя доходность +4.3%. #293 в рейтинге Buzzberg Alpha. Чаще всего покрывает: SPY, AGG, EFA.
