MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 13, 2026 at 17:05  |  1:06:17  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Michael Howell — Founder, CrossBorder Capital
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Masel Begnan — Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading

Summary

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna interview Michael Howell about the global liquidity cycle and its impact on asset markets. Howell argues that while the liquidity cycle has peaked, strong real economic growth will continue to drive commodity prices and bond yields higher. The post-interview market desk segment covers tactical setups in gold, equities, and agricultural commodities.

  • Michael Howell explains the 65-month global liquidity cycle and its current downward trajectory.
  • Analysis of China's debt deflation and the PBOC's liquidity injections to devalue the yuan internally.
  • Discussion on why gold is outperforming crypto as a monetary hedge against Chinese liquidity expansion.
  • Howell's thesis that strong nominal GDP growth will force US bond yields significantly higher.
  • Patrick Ceresna outlines a defined-risk bull call spread on GLD to capture tactical upside.
  • The market desk reviews bullish price acceptance in the S&P 500 and lagging semiconductor participation.
  • Mas Begnan highlights extreme short positioning in wheat ahead of escalating Black Sea supply risks.
Ideas
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 11:55
Chinese liquidity expansion drives gold prices higher.
China's PBOC is expanding liquidity to devalue domestic debt, which directly drives gold higher, while Western debt monetization provides additional long-term tailwinds for the precious metal.
GLD HIGH
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 12:21
Strong economic growth boosts global commodity demand.
The real economy remains strong and is draining liquidity from financial markets, which combined with Chinese stimulus will continue to boost global commodity demand.
DBB DBC HIGH
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 18:16
Fading global liquidity pressures crypto asset prices.
Cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to global and Federal Reserve liquidity, which is currently fading, putting the asset class under a cloud compared to gold.
BTC MED
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 22:45
Falling liquidity favors defensive equity market positioning.
As the global liquidity cycle falls and the real economy peaks, financial assets face headwinds, making defensive stocks likely to outperform the broader equity market.
XLP MED
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 29:25
Mean-reverting gold-oil ratio implies higher oil.
Oil prices are set to rise significantly as the gold-to-oil ratio mean-reverts; if gold remains elevated, historical ratios imply oil could reach $135 to $200 per barrel.
WTI XLE HIGH
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 39:08
Strong nominal GDP drives bond yields higher.
Strong US nominal GDP growth of 6% to 8%, driven by fiscal spending, AI, and deglobalization, will pull long-term bond yields higher, potentially testing 6%.
IEF MED
Michael Howell Founder, CrossBorder Capital 42:19
Reluctance to raise rates weakens the yen.
The Bank of Japan's reluctance to raise short-term rates while long-end yields rise leads to effective debt monetization, which will cause the yen to continue selling off.
FXY MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 50:18
Bullish market structure points to higher equities.
The market structure is surprisingly bullish with price acceptance at all-time highs, making the bull trend the path of least resistance toward 8000.
SPY HIGH
Masel Begnan Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading 58:40
Underowned silver has significant room to run.
Silver remains heavily underowned by large speculators, indicating that the precious metals rally is still in its early stages with significant room to run.
SILVER MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 59:06
Uranium stocks may begin new accumulation cycle.
Uranium mining stocks have come to life, rallying 25% and reclaiming their 50-day moving average, potentially signaling a new accumulation cycle.
URRA URA MED
Masel Begnan Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading 63:05
Supply risks could trigger agricultural short squeezes.
Speculators piled into short positions just before attacks on Russian grain infrastructure escalated supply risks, setting up a potential short-squeeze and bullish price action across the agricultural space.
CORN SOYB WEAT HIGH
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This Macro Voices video, published August 13, 2026, features Michael Howell, Patrick Ceresna, Masel Begnan discussing GLD, DBB, DBC, BTC, XLP, WTI, XLE, IEF, FXY, SPY, SILVER, URRA, URA, CORN, SOYB, WEAT. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael Howell, Patrick Ceresna, Masel Begnan  · Tickers: GLD, DBB, DBC, BTC, XLP, WTI, XLE, IEF, FXY, SPY, SILVER, URRA, URA, CORN, SOYB, WEAT