Roundup #85: Most policy is also industrial policy
Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· July 28, 2026 at 00:33
· ⏱ 25 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith's roundup argues that most policy decisions function as de facto industrial policy, using examples from science funding, national debt, Europe's AI ambivalence, US infrastructure costs, critical mineral refining, and Indian labor dynamics. For markets, the article is a macro-policy analysis without actionable trade recommendations.
•OSTP proposes shifting federal science funding from organizations to individual scientists and diversifying mechanisms, but the plan lacks funding and legislative backing.
•US national debt is already raising long-term interest rates, increasing annual mortgage borrowing costs by ~$2,500 on a median-priced home.
•Europe's regulatory hostility to software (e.g., GDPR) has left it dependent on US and China for AI, risking de facto economic satellite status.
•US train costs per mile are 4x the median rich country, but NYC's costs are extreme due to inefficiency, corruption, and lack of standardization.
•China dominates critical mineral refining (90%+ for rare earths) despite mining little; advantage stems from cheap loans, environmental leniency, downstream industry, and tacit knowledge.
•India's female labor force participation is low and declining; median married woman leaves home 0.5 hours/day, and 45% never leave on a given day.
•Murder rates in the US today are about as low as the 1950s; the myth that improved trauma care explains the decline is debunked using victimization survey data.