Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· August 26, 2026 at 09:12
· ⏱ 12 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
San Francisco's Market Street was destroyed not just by the pandemic, remote work, and crime, but by a car ban that removed cars without creating any attractive pedestrian space. The author argues the quickest fix is to allow private cars back, or to redesign the street as a genuine public space like Paris. For markets, this points to a slow SF downtown recovery and renewed policy access for ride-hail/autonomous operators, though the article is not a stock-picking piece.
•Market Street was closed to private cars in 2019 but remained open to buses, delivery trucks, and licensed taxis; weekday foot traffic is still down by half compared to 2019.
•SF property crime fell 27% in 2025, including burglaries down 29%, larceny down 22%, and robbery down 24%, with further drops in 2026.
•The San Francisco Centre mall, the commercial heart of Market Street, closed in January 2026 after being gutted by the 'Doom Loop' of remote work, crime, and pandemic-related changes.
•American Eagle sued the San Francisco Centre for negligence, reporting over 100 serious incidents of violence and harassment in its downtown store.
•The Better Market Street project was initially a $600 million plan with elevated bike lanes; costs soared above $1 billion before being cut back to $604 million, and the elevated bike lanes were scrapped in late 2020.
•Mayor Daniel Lurie has already allowed certain Uber, Lyft, and Waymo cars to operate on Market Street, and the author argues the city might as well fully reopen the street to private cars.
Noah Smith writes that American Eagle sued San Francisco Centre after reporting over 100 serious incidents of violence and harassment in its downtown store, a quantified sign of crime-driven operating
Noah Smith writes that American Eagle sued San Francisco Centre after reporting over 100 serious incidents of violence and harassment in its downtown store, a quantified sign of crime-driven operating stress for AEO's physical retail footprint.
Risk: Single-location anecdote from one city; national AEO operations may be unaffected, and crime in SF has begun to fall.
The article says the car ban made Market Street businesses less attractive because Uber and Lyft could not pick up or drop off on the street, and Mayor Lurie has already allowed certain Uber, Lyft, an
The article says the car ban made Market Street businesses less attractive because Uber and Lyft could not pick up or drop off on the street, and Mayor Lurie has already allowed certain Uber, Lyft, and Waymo vehicles to operate there; full reopening would remove that drag on ride-hail demand.
Risk: City policy could stall or instead shift toward pedestrianization; Market Street is only one corridor within a larger operating area.
Lyft is named alongside Uber as being allowed back on Market Street, and the author's argument that car access supports foot traffic and retail implies continued reopening of the corridor benefits rid
Lyft is named alongside Uber as being allowed back on Market Street, and the author's argument that car access supports foot traffic and retail implies continued reopening of the corridor benefits ride-hail operators.
Risk: Policy uncertainty remains, and autonomous competition from Waymo could pressure Lyft's market position over time.
This newsletter, published August 26, 2026,
features Noah Smith
discussing AEO, UBER, LYFT.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.