Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· August 24, 2026 at 08:46
· ⏱ 14 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that Americans' political discontent is driven less by economic hardship than by status, belonging, and cultural resentment — and that economic fixes will not reliably restore happiness. It points to data showing Millennials doing well economically and Trump's trade/immigration policies failing on their own economic terms, yet unhappiness persists. For markets, this means macro-policy success may not translate into political rewards or sentiment improvement, but the piece offers no direct tradeable signal.
•Corinth and Larrimore (2026) find Millennials' real median household income was 20% higher than the previous generation, with lifetime income gains far outweighing higher educational costs.
•By their mid-30s, Millennials' market income was well ahead of Gen X and Boomers on a cost-of-living-adjusted basis, and they had caught up in wealth.
•Manufacturing employment has fallen since Trump imposed tariffs, undercutting the claim that tariffs would bring back blue-collar jobs.
•Mass deportations and near-zero net immigration have failed to raise employment rates for native-born Americans.
•Margalit (2019) finds the share of populist support explained by economic insecurity is modest, and immigration views are only marginally shaped by economic standing.
•Enos and Hirsch found 23% of Obama campaign staffers cited income inequality as the most important issue, while fewer than 1% of voters listed it.
•Inflation fell from 9% in summer 2022 to 3% in summer 2023, yet voters still punished Democrats in 2024; consumer sentiment remains depressed despite a robust job market and decent growth.