u/Historical_Edge_3325 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· June 25, 2026 at 04:55
· ⬆ 17 pts
· 💬 13 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
Post advocates a short-term bullish options play on NFLX (7/17 $75C) ahead of earnings on 7/15, expecting a pre-earnings bid driven by institutional positioning and a massive buyback program.
The author’s thesis: NFLX is oversold (~30% drawdown from highs), fundamentals remain strong (revenue growth, margin expansion, ad scaling, cash flow), and the buyback supports EPS and institutional interest — enough to push the stock 4-5% higher into earnings.
Quality assessment: Speculation with some fundamental context, but lacks rigorous valuation or technical analysis; more of a momentum/event-driven trade than deep DD.
Score17
Comments13
Upvote %81%
▶ Full Post Text
Position: NFLX 7/17 $75C
NFLX sucks - blah blah blah. I’m frankly sick of the narrative. Since when do we care about long term investment advice? This is a 3 week play.
NFLX reports in 7/15. The stock often catches a bid into earnings because funds position early for another quarter of boring execution. I don’t need to hold through the print. I need the pre-earnings bid. Sure it’s been going down since the acquisition fell through, but it held up decently well this week all things considered.
Why $75C?
NFLX is around $71–72, so $75 only needs a 4–5% move. Break-even is about $77.37, but I’m not playing this as an expiry hold. I’m playing the move into earnings while IV and positioning matter.
Why NFLX?
This is an oversold bounce + earnings run-up trade.
NFLX was above $107 in mid-April and is now around $71–72. That is roughly a 30%+ drawdown in about two months, despite the business still growing revenue, expanding margins, scaling ads, and generating real cash flow.
Now add the buyback.
Netflix has a massive repurchase authorization, which matters because it gives management a built-in way to support EPS and return capital while the business keeps compounding. That is exactly the kind of setup institutions like into earnings: profitable growth, strong cash flow, and buybacks behind it.
Bottom Line:
Look guys, this isn’t a Wendy’s. But it could be. With help from the buy back I expect enough momentum I to earnings to make these contracts profitable.
Reminder of the buy-back:
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/andymeek/2026/04/26/netflixs-new-stock-buyback-is-bigger-than-its-entire-2026-content-budget/](https://www.forbes.com/sites/andymeek/2026/04/26/netflixs-new-stock-buyback-is-bigger-than-its-entire-2026-content-budget/)
NFLX dropped ~30% from $107 to $71-72 despite growing revenue, margins, ads, and cash flow; buyback authorization is large relative to content budget. Into earnings, institutions often position early for predictable execution, and the buyback provides a floor and EPS tailwind — creating a pre-earnings bid that can lift the stock 4-5%. Buy $75C (strike ~4% above current price) to capture the expected move into earnings without holding through the print; breakeven ~$77.37 but author plans to exit before expiry. Earnings miss or lack of pre-earnings momentum; continued selling pressure from failed acquisition; IV contraction if stock doesn’t move; time decay erodes option value.
This Reddit post, published June 25, 2026,
features u/Historical_Edge_3325
discussing NFLX.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.