NFLX dropped ~30% from $107 to $71-72 despite growing revenue, margins, ads, and cash flow; buyback authorization is large relative to content budget. Into earnings, institutions often position early for predictable execution, and the buyback provides a floor and EPS tailwind — creating a pre-earnings bid that can lift the stock 4-5%. Buy $75C (strike ~4% above current price) to capture the expected move into earnings without holding through the print; breakeven ~$77.37 but author plans to exit before expiry. Earnings miss or lack of pre-earnings momentum; continued selling pressure from failed acquisition; IV contraction if stock doesn’t move; time decay erodes option value.
NFLX dropped ~30% from $107 to $71-72 despite growing revenue, margins, ads, and cash flow; buyback authorization is large relative to content budget. Into earnings, institutions often position early for predictable execution, and the buyback provides a floor and EPS tailwind — creating a pre-earnings bid that can lift the stock 4-5%. Buy $75C (strike ~4% above current price) to capture the expected move into earnings without holding through the print; breakeven ~$77.37 but author plans to exit before expiry. Earnings miss or lack of pre-earnings momentum; continued selling pressure from failed acquisition; IV contraction if stock doesn’t move; time decay erodes option value.