Iran MOU Expires With Diplomacy Still in Play

Summary

Dan Williams discusses the expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, arguing it will not by itself resume all-out fighting. Washington is shifting toward economic pressure and sanctions while skirmishes and attacks on commercial vessels continue near the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli officials see Iran as economically fragile and want US-led pressure sustained, though regime change is seen as unlikely.

• MOU expiration does not imply a return to full shooting war.
• The framework initially aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and discuss a long-term deal.
• The ceasefire quickly broke down, with flare-ups between the US and Iran.
• The Trump administration is emphasizing economic sanctions over a combat-driven campaign.
• Commercial vessels, including Abu Dhabi oil vessels, have been attacked near Hormuz.
• Israeli officials see Iran nearing economic collapse and want pressure maintained.
• Some Gulf players may develop alternative energy export routes.
• Regime change is seen as unlikely; sanctions aim to make normal life in Iran intolerable.