Why KOSPI could rise to 8000: 'Profit cycle peak-out concerns ended in July' / Samsung Electronics shareholder return will look like this | Han Ji-young, Research Fellow

Summary

Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities argues the KOSPI can break above 8000 this year because July's sharp selloff already priced profit-cycle peak-out fears. She sees foreign flows returning to Korean equities and expects the Fed to hold rates through year-end. She views the Nvidia-Wall Street AI alliance and hyperscaler capex as evidence the AI infrastructure cycle remains intact, and memory LTA contracts as reducing downside cycle amplitude. The next key catalyst is Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shareholder return, ideally in late August or early September.

• KOSPI can break 8000 by year-end; July selloff priced peak-out concerns.
• Fed likely holds rates through year-end; rate sensitivity to ease.
• Foreign long-term Korea ETF flows stayed positive in July despite price drop.
• Nvidia-Wall Street AI alliance and hyperscaler capex support AI/memory demand.
• Memory LTA prepayments make downcycle shallower and protect earnings.
• Samsung/SK Hynix shareholder return timing is a key near-term catalyst.
• Near term, KOSPI may see profit-taking before Nvidia earnings/Jackson Hole, but not a reversal.