Ideas
Bullish gold via GLD bull call spread.
Patrick sees Michael Howell's structurally bullish gold view as setting up a tactical inflection and constructs a defined-risk GLD bull call spread because gold has a steep right tail skew that makes far upside calls expensive; by buying the October 16, 2026 $410 GLD call and selling the $450 call he risks about $10 to make about $30 if GLD reaches the April high near $450 within about two months.
S&P 500 bull trend likely continues.
Mile argues the S&P 500's latest breakout to all-time highs is being accepted rather than mean-reverting; the market is bouncing along 52-week highs with bulls in control, and a short-term catalyst breaking the one-week range could quickly send the index toward 8,000, while a 200-point dip would likely be bought.
Watch Nasdaq/semis for rally participation.
Patrick notes Nasdaq positioning is extremely light/net short while S&P and Dow positioning are stretched, and suspects the Nasdaq shorts may be hedges against crowded semiconductor and MAG 7 longs; with semiconductors notably absent from the rally, S&P 8,000 likely requires MAG 7 participation, making it important to watch whether tech and semis get bought on dips.
Dollar at key inflection versus yen/euro.
Patrick says the US dollar has mean-reverted from its prior uptrend after the big yen intervention, and USD/JPY has retraced about 50% of the intervention drop; the next week or two should reveal whether the dollar is meaningfully reversing lower, which would correspond to renewed yen strength and EUR/USD upside, or whether this is just a buy-the-dip in the dollar.
Oil has room to stay elevated.
Mile sees crude oil quietly consolidating near its 50-day moving average but the Middle East situation remains fragile and oil markets stressed; fair value has room to stay elevated, with a reasonable chance to hold above $80 and headline risk that sends it back toward $90, while a return to the June low near $65 looks unlikely.
Silver extremely underowned, first inning.
Mile points out gold positioning moved only to neutral while silver remains extremely underowned, with large speculator positioning near the zero percentile over the past 12 months; if precious metals are turning higher, this is still the first inning, making silver a notable laggard with catch-up potential.
Uranium miners may be turning higher.
Patrick notes uranium had been dead for three to four months with futures flatlining between $85 and $87, but it is now upticking and uranium mining stocks via URA have rallied nearly 25% trough-to-peak over two weeks and reclaimed the 50-day moving average; one week does not confirm a new trend, but this is the first positive price action since early Q2 and a potential turn toward a new accumulation cycle.
Front/back Treasury positioning extremely divergent.
Patrick explains the Treasury curve shows opposite positioning stories: 2-year positioning is at the 100th percentile while 10-year positioning is at the zero percentile, driven by short covering at the front as traders price the Fed closer to the end of its hawkish cycle, while the long bond remains in a vicious downtrend with shorts piling in and 30-year yields near 5.25%; this sets up a potential bull steepening.
Wheat short-covering risk on Black Sea escalation.
Mile is watching wheat because large speculators went from flat to roughly 15,000 contracts net short in one week with about 11,000 fresh new shorts, and this bearish positioning was established before the latest Black Sea escalation; with attacks on Russian grain infrastructure and Russia controlling 22% of global wheat exports, further supply disruption could force those new shorts to buy back, especially after wheat held its 50-day moving average and fib zone.
Soybeans and corn may rally too.
Patrick adds that the same bullish chart pattern seen in wheat is also present in soybeans and corn, suggesting the whole agricultural complex is setting up for potential food shortage concerns and bullish price action, which he wants to keep watching.
This Macro Voices video, published August 13, 2026,
features Patrick Ceresna, Masel Begnan
discussing GLD, SPY, QQQ, SMH, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, WTI, SILVER, URA, SHY, IEF, TLT, WEAT, SOYB, CORN.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Patrick Ceresna,
Masel Begnan
· Tickers:
GLD,
SPY,
QQQ,
SMH,
USD/JPY,
EUR/USD,
WTI,
SILVER,
URA,
SHY,
IEF,
TLT,
WEAT,
SOYB,
CORN
