Yield Excitement Reaching Local Extreme?: 3-Minutes MLIV

Summary

The panel debates whether the jump in long-end yields is reaching a local extreme and when yields could hurt stocks. Skylar expects short-term curve flattening as long-end buyers emerge but sees much higher global long-end yields and more steepening over time. Mark highlights record refined product spreads and firm crude prices as an inflation concern, while arguing yields are not yet at a breaking point for equities unless the pace accelerates.

• Panel discusses whether rising yields are at a local extreme.
• Short-term view sees possible Treasury curve flattening as long-end buyers step in.
• Longer-term view expects global back-end yields to rise further and curve steepening to resume.
• Diesel and gasoline spreads hit records while crude prices also move higher.
• Iran supply risk remains a key energy and inflation driver.
• Mark Cudmore says no imminent yield level breaks stocks, but pace matters.