MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 23, 2026 at 16:33  |  1:04:11  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Luke Gromen — Founder, Forest for the Trees
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Michelle Begnan — Co-host, MacroVoices Trading Desk
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices

Summary

Erik Townsend interviews Luke Gromen on the Iran conflict's impact on oil, China's energy strategy, and the implications for gold, bonds, and global monetary order. Gromen advocates long gold, US electrical infrastructure, Japanese industrials, and Bitcoin, while warning of bond market stress. The trading desk segment features a hedged gold trade, S&P 500 vulnerability watch, dollar strength, and copper breakout setup.

  • Iran conflict protracts; China shifts oil demand to EVs, containing prices but stoking inflation.
  • Gold begins to rally alongside oil and rates, suggesting safe-haven demand.
  • Luke Gromen: long gold, US electrical infrastructure (PAVE/GRID), Japanese industrials, Bitcoin; sell bonds.
  • Patrick Ceresna: hedged GLD risk corridor; S&P 500 vulnerable to correction; US dollar bullish breakout.
  • Michelle Begnan: copper positioning reset, watch for breakout as physical demand stays strong.
  • Global bond markets face rising yields and potential yield curve control.
  • China aims to replace dollar hegemony with gold-based settlement.
Ideas
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 22:53
Sell bonds, rates headed higher.
War is always inflationary; coordinated defense spending borrowing by US, UK, Germany, Japan, and Korea turns creditors into borrowers, pushing bond yields higher; sell bonds until yield curve control is forced.
TLT HIGH
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 24:33
Bitcoin thrives during monetary repression.
If bond markets break and force yield curve control, currencies weaken, and Bitcoin will do really well in that scenario.
BTC MED
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 32:38
Gold outperforms oil and bonds.
War is always inflationary and prolonged; China's ability to keep oil prices from spiking buys time for gold to benefit; gold starting to rise with oil and rates this week, signaling a shift; gold is simpler with lower volatility and will outperform oil; ultimately, fiscal and monetary pressures favor gold as a neutral reserve asset.
GLD HIGH
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 34:31
US electrical grid buildout benefits.
US has underinvested in power generation for decades; lead times for electrical infrastructure are years long; private equity signals multi-year demand far beyond what public companies admit; bottlenecks in power are huge tailwinds; recommends PAVE ETF and GRID ETF.
GRID PAVE HIGH
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 36:07
Japan industrials benefit from reshoring.
US cannot reshore manufacturing without Japan; Japan is critical for defense and industrial buildout; Japanese industrials are still early in the cycle and will do very well.
Japanese industrial equities MED
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 37:09
Buy semiconductor dip for upside.
If US AI faces problems, semiconductors will be dragged down, creating a buying opportunity; longer term, semiconductors will end up higher; despite eventual Chinese competition, near-term pullback is a chance to add.
SMH MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 50:36
S&P 500 vulnerable, watch 7400.
S&P 500 vulnerable as MAG7 earnings not providing bullish tailwind yet; systematic trader flip points are rising; a drop of 150-200 points could trigger sell programs and a correction down to 7000; key level 7400 to watch.
SPY MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 52:14
US dollar breaking out higher.
US dollar index forming a bull flag above the 50-day moving average after breaking out of its 15-month range; early signs of breakout; EUR weakness, USD/JPY strength, and broad dollar strength across currencies support bullish continuation.
US Dollar Index (DXY) MED
Michelle Begnan Co-host, MacroVoices Trading Desk 59:48
Copper setup for breakout.
Copper positioning reset through time rather than price crash; physical demand strong with falling Chinese inventories and rising import premiums; speculative positioning now back to normal, room to rebuild; setup for breakout, watch upcoming COT report for confirmation.
COPPER MED
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This Macro Voices video, published July 23, 2026, features Luke Gromen, Patrick Ceresna, Michelle Begnan discussing TLT, BTC, GLD, GRID, PAVE, Japanese industrial equities, SMH, SPY, US Dollar Index (DXY), COPPER. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Luke Gromen, Patrick Ceresna, Michelle Begnan  · Tickers: TLT, BTC, GLD, GRID, PAVE, Japanese industrial equities, SMH, SPY, US Dollar Index (DXY), COPPER