Calls
20
#835
Alpha Score 17.4
David Hay
Founder, Haymaker Publications
Win Rate
45.0%
return
-5.5%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 02
$36.90
-7.5%
Hay notes that Chinese stocks have corrected and valuations are extremely low (KWEB average PE is ~14, cheaper than US utilities). He explicitly mentions BYD (BYDDY) as attractive. As the "American Exceptionalism" trade unwinds, capital seeks undervalued jurisdictions. China has already experienced its bear market, creating a favorable risk/reward entry compared to the frothy US market. LONG Chinese indices and specific tech/EV leaders. Geopolitical tensions or renewed regulatory crackdowns in China.
Hay notes that Chinese stocks have corrected and valuations are extremely low (KWEB average PE is ~14, cheaper than US utilities). He explicitly mentions BYD (BYDDY) as attractive. As the "American Exceptionalism" trade unwinds, capital seeks undervalued jurisdictions. China has already experienced its bear market, creating a favorable risk/reward entry compared to the frothy US market. LONG Chinese indices and specific tech/EV leaders. Geopolitical tensions or renewed regulatory crackdowns in China.
Equity Indexes
Long
Mar 02
$115.34
-38.2%
Hay points out that while gold/silver prices have soared, miner shares outstanding are dropping (investor disinterest) and prices haven't fully caught up. He specifically praises First Majestic (AG) and Dolly Varden (DOLLF). Higher metal prices will lead to an explosion in miner earnings. The disconnect between record metal prices and lagging miner equity prices creates a deep value opportunity. LONG Gold and Silver Miners (Senior and Junior). Rising input costs (energy/labor) eating into mining margins despite higher metal prices.
Hay points out that while gold/silver prices have soared, miner shares outstanding are dropping (investor disinterest) and prices haven't fully caught up. He specifically praises First Majestic (AG) and Dolly Varden (DOLLF). Higher metal prices will lead to an explosion in miner earnings. The disconnect between record metal prices and lagging miner equity prices creates a deep value opportunity. LONG Gold and Silver Miners (Senior and Junior). Rising input costs (energy/labor) eating into mining margins despite higher metal prices.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Mar 02
$81.57
-37.7%
Hay points out that while gold/silver prices have soared, miner shares outstanding are dropping (investor disinterest) and prices haven't fully caught up. He specifically praises First Majestic (AG) and Dolly Varden (DOLLF). Higher metal prices will lead to an explosion in miner earnings. The disconnect between record metal prices and lagging miner equity prices creates a deep value opportunity. LONG Gold and Silver Miners (Senior and Junior). Rising input costs (energy/labor) eating into mining margins despite higher metal prices.
Hay points out that while gold/silver prices have soared, miner shares outstanding are dropping (investor disinterest) and prices haven't fully caught up. He specifically praises First Majestic (AG) and Dolly Varden (DOLLF). Higher metal prices will lead to an explosion in miner earnings. The disconnect between record metal prices and lagging miner equity prices creates a deep value opportunity. LONG Gold and Silver Miners (Senior and Junior). Rising input costs (energy/labor) eating into mining margins despite higher metal prices.
Commodities
Long
Jun 09
$95.50
+0.0%
Emerging market debt still offers much higher yields and a more positive fundamental backdrop than developed-market bonds. EM bond markets have been making new highs while rich-country bonds make new lows, and this trend should continue.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Jun 09
$89.22
-1.2%
Expand Energy is a cheap natural gas producer trading at about 10x earnings and 1.5x sales. It broke out and pulled back, offering an attractive entry in a dirt-cheap sector poised to benefit from surging gas demand.
Oil & Gas
Long
Jun 09
$73.75
+2.4%
In a dangerously concentrated US market, midcaps offer diversification away from bubble stocks. The midcap index trades at a big valuation discount (15-17x earnings) and is outperforming the S&P, making it a good overweight.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 09
$6.11
-14.4%
Coal prices are set to spike as Indonesia bans exports and Asia faces an LNG shortage. New Hope Mining, a large Australian coal miner, trades at only 14x depressed earnings, and its chart looks like a coiled spring ready to break higher.
Coal
Long
Jun 09
$66.03
+1.9%
Fertilizer stocks have been disappointing and are being abandoned, but a major fertilizer shortage is underway due to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Nutrien should see a strong rally once the shortage becomes apparent.
Chemicals
Long
Jun 09
$38.43
-4.3%
Range Resources is a natural gas producer that recently broke out to a new multi-year high, trades at just 9x earnings, and benefits from the same deeply undervalued natural gas backdrop.
Oil & Gas
Long
Jun 09
$81.94
+0.1%
Prefer short-term Treasuries as a place to park money. They roughly keep pace with inflation and provide optionality to redeploy quickly without worrying about big mark-to-market losses if long-end yields rise further.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Jun 09
$84.99
-0.6%
With yields at multi-decade highs and extreme bearishness, long-term Treasuries offer a tactical countertrend long as a hedge against a sharp stock market sell-off. However, any rally is to be sold, so this is a short-term trade, not a long-term hold.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Jun 09
$131.00
-5.4%
The Iran conflict caused the most severe energy supply shock ever, removing 13-15% of global oil supply (1-1.5 billion barrels lost). Inventories are collapsing, with tanks possibly running dry. Yet oil futures price only $80 for Dec 2026, far below the $120-$150+ that experts like Cornerstone and Exxon signal. This massive mispricing creates a great opportunity.
Commodities
Long
Jun 09
$57.33
+0.9%
Energy stocks (XLE) have barely risen despite the worst energy crisis in history, because the market is ignoring the supply shock. This complacency means the sector is mispriced and offers a great opportunity.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 09
$52.12
+7.9%
Financials have sold off hard after an initial breakout but remain in a multi-year uptrend. The correction looks like a good entry point in a sector that has been lagging the market.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Mar 02
$208.39
+18.6%
Hay notes that Amazon is trading around 22x earnings, which is significantly cheaper than the "value" stocks (WMT/LLY) mentioned above. Relative value arbitrage. If one must hold US large caps, Amazon offers better growth-adjusted value than the over-crowded defensive sectors. LONG Amazon (specifically as a pair trade against Short Value). Consumer spending slowdown affecting retail margins.
Hay notes that Amazon is trading around 22x earnings, which is significantly cheaper than the "value" stocks (WMT/LLY) mentioned above. Relative value arbitrage. If one must hold US large caps, Amazon offers better growth-adjusted value than the over-crowded defensive sectors. LONG Amazon (specifically as a pair trade against Short Value). Consumer spending slowdown affecting retail margins.
Hyperscalers
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David Hay has 20 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 20 tickers since March 2026. Win rate 45% across 20 evaluated calls, average return -5.5%. Ranked #835 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: FXI, SILVER, GDX.
