Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 48 videos · 13 channels
AI financing
3 videos · 1h 36mAnthropic's IPO economics and OpenAI's smaller private round both point to a more selective capital market for AI; Michael Howell argues the AI buildout is draining liquidity.
Anthropic's $17B quarter arrives with $900B of compute commitments and an IPO roadshow
Anthropic's latest quarter showed revenue near $17B, roughly 12x year over year, against about $10B of quarterly compute spend and large multiyear capacity commitments. Bloomberg expects the roadshow around Nov. 9 and trading before Thanksgiving, with operating leverage still unproven.
OpenAI cuts its private raise to about $20B while keeping a $1.25T pre-money mark
OpenAI reportedly reduced its next private round to roughly $20B from an earlier target near $30B, with sovereign capital from Abu Dhabi and the UAE leading at a pre-money valuation around $1.25T. The deal is framed as a bridge to a confidential IPO filing and a 2027 listing, not a distress raise.
Michael Howell says global liquidity has turned, so own duration now and gold later
Howell argues global liquidity growth has peaked and is falling while AI capex and a refinancing wall absorb capital, favoring long-duration government bonds and defensive equities over credit and broad equity beta. He expects a later liquidity-driven reflation trade in gold and Bitcoin, with China liquidity the swing factor for gold.
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XLP -1.5% · SPGI -2.5% · MCO -6.7%Oil
1 video · 2mJeff Currie argues long-dated crude embeds an energy-security regime; Ryanair expects fuel costs to rise and European capacity cuts to support fares.
Jeff Currie says long-dated crude is pricing an energy-security regime, not just the Iran war
Currie argues physical oil markets are pricing a durable shift toward energy security, with long-dated Brent near $100 and long-dated WTI above $90 as governments rebuild inventories and diversify supply routes. He separates that from the prompt market, which is trying to price the end of the war.
Apple
1 video · 1mApple's revenue beat drew conflicting China reads — Bloomberg flagged a shortfall while CNBC called China a standout — and the reported quarter leaves guidance as the key swing factor.
Apple beats revenue, but Greater China is the clearest soft spot
Apple's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue came in at $114.8B, above consensus, driven by iPhone demand tied to a pent-up upgrade cycle; Greater China revenue was about $1B short and iPad was light while Mac and accessories outperformed. Forward guidance matters more than the reported quarter because the newest device cycle was not fully captured.