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· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
@ces921 put hyperscaler credit spreads 15bp wider against 2bp for IG, and @jasonschips read Marvell's Lumentum deal as a way to secure laser capacity Nvidia had locked up.
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Market Radar →ParadisLabs says weak Amazon and Intel guides hit crowded megacap positioning despite AWS +39% and Google Cloud +103%
Mag 7 positioning was crowded and the bar was high, as hedge funds had rotated into the less risky hyperscalers for growth exposure. AWS grew 39% and Google Cloud 103% year over year, but their topline guides were weaker than the Street expected.
Black Friday for Technology stocks. AI Market Memo:
With such heavy positioning, the hyperscalers were not allowed to miss in any way.
Source →TheValueist: Quanta's 57% revenue growth and $64 billion backlog show the power cycle broadening
Quanta's principal constraint is shifting from construction labor toward equipment availability, procurement and energization, with $1.2 billion of quarterly free cash flow. Infrastructure owners must commit cash earlier and wait for assets to generate returns.
$PWR KEY READ-THROUGHS FROM QUANTA SERVICES’ THIRD-QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS CALL Quanta’s results indicate that the power-infrastructure investment cycle is broadening,
The strongest positive implications favor critical electrical equipment and integrated construction capabilities.
Source →Hyperscaler credit spreads widened 15bp against 2bp for IG and Amazon CDS moved out 13bp
Since Wednesday's Fed, the 2-year is down 15bp while the 30-year hasn't moved; Amazon CDS widened after the $220bn capex guide, and stress climbed from neocloud stocks down 14% to 17% to Meta's Hyperion financing. When broad credit bounced Friday, AI credit didn't.
Quick Week in Review Sunmary Q Warsh told us AI credit is on the Fed's radar.
Year-end de-grossing broke hedges: gold fell 4.5% below $4,000 and NQ fell 4.8%.
Watch Tuesday's midterms, with dealers short VIX upside above 22.
Source →17 analysts cut Intel targets in one day, including BofA to Neutral with a $100 target
Roth cut to Neutral with a $70 target, and BofA's Vivek Arya cites fourth-quarter PC shipments down 25% to 30% quarter over quarter and cuts 2030 earnings power to $5 to $6 from $6 to $7. Intel's third-quarter data center and AI revenue was $7.3 billion, up 78%.
INTC: 17 analysts cut targets in one day, stock down about 29% + BofA cut Intel from Buy to Neutral,
The guide gap, not the third-quarter beat, is what the Street is pricing.
Source →Jasonschips reads Marvell's Lumentum deal as a way to secure laser capacity Nvidia had locked up
Nvidia was about to win scale-up CPO because it bought all of Lumentum's capacity, leaving Marvell unable to provide scale-up optics in its ASIC design program, so Marvell bought Lumentum. Marvell's Celestial memory-pooling solution needs a ton of lasers.
My interpretation of the $MRVL $LITE deal which I haven’t seen anyone else get right.
If right, Marvell gains supply against larger rivals Nvidia and Broadcom in accelerators.
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