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· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Jukan relayed Aletheia's claim that Anthropic tripled its 2028 AMD GPU order to 3 GW, and Vertiv's organic orders grew more than 100%.
Themes on this desk
HBM pricing
Goldman cites TrendForce expecting blended HBM ASP to rise 122% to $3.7/GB in 2027; Needham says HBM price increases are coming next year and raised its SK hynix target to $235.
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Market Radar →Aletheia says Anthropic raised its 2028 AMD GPU orders to 3 GW
Per Aletheia, Anthropic increased its AMD GPU orders for 2028 to 3 GW, three times its original 1 GW target, and OpenAI raised planned AMD GPU deployments over 2026 to 2028 from 6 GW to 8 to 9 GW.
Aletheia is the best research house. Their industry intelligence is truly impressive. Aletheia:
If accurate, two AI labs are expanding AMD GPU deployments well beyond earlier targets.
Watch Company confirmation of the gigawatt figures.
Source →Zephyr says CXMT earns 60% to 71% gross margin on HBM even at low yields
Zephyr puts CXMT's HBM3 cost at about $2/Gb versus $0.6/Gb for the big three and selling prices at $5 to $7/Gb, and expects yields to reach 50% to 70% by the second quarter.
It's highly GM-positive for them CXMT's HBM3 production cost is around $2/Gb compared to $0.6/Gb for the memory big 3.
Zephyr says the yield loss is at bonding and TSV formation, not lithography tools.
Watch CXMT HBM yields by the second quarter.
Source →CDS on AI builders turned lower, with CoreWeave back to about 1,040bp
CoreWeave CDS is back to about 1,040bp from above 1,100, Oracle is under 300, and Meta and Microsoft are off their highs.
$NBIS $CRWV $META $MSFT AI credit is starting to heal Over the last few weeks we lived through the first
The author says falling insurance costs on AI debt could reopen funding.
Watch Whether CDS on AI builders keeps falling.
Source →Vertiv's sales grew 61% to $4.3 billion and organic orders grew more than 100%
Adjusted EPS of $2.21 beat the $1.82 consensus, full-year sales were raised $650M to $14.65B, and the fourth quarter is guided to 50% organic growth.
$VRT printed an amazing Q3. Sales of $4.3B grew 61%, well above the $3.85B top end of guidance.
Adjusted operating margin expanded to 25.2%.
Watch Fourth-quarter organic growth against the 50% guide.
Source →UMC expects AI revenue of $300 million in 2026 and a likely price hike in the first quarter of 2027
Multiple hyperscalers have qualified UMC's 1.6T optical transceiver platform, and AI revenue is expected above 25% of revenue in three years.
- 18k SiPh capacity target by 2030; SiPh above corporate avg margin - 2027 utilization >90%;
Gross margin is unlikely to hit the previous cycle peak as depreciation and raw-material costs rise.
Watch Price hike timing in the first quarter of 2027.
Source →