Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Microsoft's 48% Azure growth and Alphabet's move to rent outside compute were the substantive earnings reads, and Jukan relayed a technical case against Cerebras's wafer lifespan.
Themes on this desk
Oracle plan
Oracle targets at least $225 billion of FY2030 revenue, a 35%-plus CAGR, and expects capex to step down in fiscal 2029; @ren_stocks says outside capital is limited to $20 billion more through FY30.
Marvell-Lumentum
Marvell is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum, per Bloomberg; @michaelsikand says Marvell would need to dilute shareholders heavily, and pequityresearch doubts the FTC would allow it.
Fed dots
@rosannainvests notes 16 of 18 officials wanted another hike this year in the September dot plot, no dot is above 4.5, and the 10-year has traded above 5 for a month.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Citrini has held FLEX since mid-July for the spin-offs and has a feeling AXM will beat NXT
Citrini has held FLEX since mid-July, mostly for the NexTracker spin-off, and has a feeling the AXM spin-off will be even better than NXT. The author sees the stock getting cheaper before the spin as an opportunity.
FLEX is really good at spinning off companies and I have a feeling AXM will be even better than NXT.
A disclosed holding built around a pending spin-off.
Watch The AXM spin-off.
Source →Jukan relays an argument that Cerebras wafers face clustered dielectric-breakdown failures
A friend's argument, shared by Jukan, says Cerebras's redundant interconnect wiring increases the area susceptible to time-dependent dielectric breakdown, and that variations in dielectric thickness make failures likely to cluster in one wafer region.
A very sharp friend of mine sent me a take arguing that Cerebras chips could depreciate extremely quickly.
Wafer lifespan sets how fast Cerebras chips depreciate.
Watch How Cerebras detects these shorts.
Source →@ren_stocks: Azure grew 48% and Microsoft has $329 billion of signed data-center leases not yet started
Azure grew 48%, up from 43% against a 44-45% guide, on $33.2 billion of revenue. Cash capex was $39.4 billion, double a year ago, and commercial backlog is $677 billion, up 73%.
$MSFT $NBIS Microsoft delivered the number the AI trade needs to continue onwards.
The author says Microsoft is still short of capacity and calls the print bullish for the AI trade.
Watch Azure growth and backlog conversion next quarter.
Source →@ren_stocks: Alphabet started renting third-party compute at the end of Q3 and expects near-term margin headwinds
Alphabet said that, given the supply-constrained environment, it began using third-party compute at the end of Q3 and will ramp usage in Q4, with near-term margin headwinds. Google Cloud grew 103% to $30.7 billion.
$NBIS $GOOGL This might be the one of the best read for neoclouds that's come out of Google yet… $GOOGL
The author reads it as pricing power for capacity owners such as Nebius and CoreWeave.
Watch Alphabet's Q4 use of third-party compute.
Source →TheValueist: GE Vernova turned higher pricing into a 21.4% Power EBITDA margin, with turbine availability into 2032
Higher equipment pricing converted into a 21.4% Power EBITDA margin despite seasonally weak services. Customer advances are shifting financing from utilities and developers to equipment suppliers, and turbine availability now extends into 2032.
$GEV KEY READ-THROUGHS FROM GE VERNOVA’S 3Q 2026 EARNINGS CALL (1/2) GE Vernova’s results strengthen the investment case for scarce
The author says this favors qualified manufacturers and owners of operating generation over infrastructure buyers.
Watch Turbine slot availability.
Source →