Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Server DDR5 memory and GPU rental prices rose 15% over the past month while AI stocks fell, per @tengyanAI, and Paradis Labs said SPY ex-AI is outperforming SPY by more than 6% in October.
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Brent crude futures settled at $116.72, up 3.14%, and US crude at $103.27, up 3.82%.
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Market Radar →Bloom Energy fell 11% after a record quarter as operating cash flow turned negative
Bloom posted record $1.24B revenue, up 138% year on year, and adjusted EPS of $0.94 against $0.69 expected, but operating cash flow flipped to -$27M from +$226M in Q2 and Roth, JPM and BTIG cut targets.
$BE down 11% today to ~$193 after earnings Q3 was a beat:
Negative operating cash flow and target cuts came alongside a beat-and-raise quarter.
Watch Operating cash flow in the next quarter.
Source →SPY ex-AI is outperforming SPY by more than 6% in October
Paradis Labs says financing concerns now look like the main risk for AI stocks, driving a rotation into defensives, with SPY ex-AI outperforming SPY by more than 6% so far in October.
Various near-term risks - Fed, War, Midterms etc.
The rotation runs against an index whose EPS growth comes mostly from AI names.
Watch Whether the gap between SPY ex-AI and SPY keeps widening.
Source →Server DDR5 and GPU rental prices rose 15% in a month, per Tessara tracker
Over the past month 32GB DDR5 server memory rose 15% and GPU rental prices across six providers rose 15%, while NAND wafer spot fell 7%.
everyone's covering who's selling the semi stocks (hedge funds shorting etc).
tengyanAI reads AI stocks falling while two physical demand indicators rise as a positioning unwind rather than a demand collapse.
Watch Whether DDR5 and GPU rental prices keep rising.
Source →Jensen Huang does not see a memory glut, per @svtrivo
Asked at GTC Berlin about oversupply, Huang said memory is something you can always use more of, and Nvidia will keep buying LPDDR in volume for the data center; he said Nvidia is open-minded about CXMT parts.
Jensen doesn't see a memory glut coming.
svtrivo argues CXMT pressure lands first on LPDDR and commodity DRAM, not HBM.
Watch Any Nvidia qualification of CXMT parts.
Source →$MXL is coming after more of the connectivity market that $CRDO has helped build.
Both are putting up strong numbers. Let’s look at them for a sec. Latest reported quarters MXL · Q3 2026 Revenue $218M, +72% YoY, +29% QoQ Adjusted gross margin 60% Next-quarter revenue guide $240–260M CRDO · Q1 FY2027 Revenue $479M, +115% YoY, +10% QoQ Adjusted gross margin 68% Next-quarter revenue guide $525–535M Two main areas of competition. Optical DSPs Both supply the chips that process signals inside optical transceivers. $MRVL and $AVGO already have 1.6T products here too. MXL expects its 1.6T ramp to begin in 2027, with a bigger contribution in 2028. Credo expects initial 1.6T DSP revenue later in FY2027, which ends in May 2027. Active electrical cables (AECs) MXL’s CEO explicitly named Credo as the leader here. MXL plans to sell chips to cable makers, giving those manufacturers another way to compete with Credo’s complete cables. Management expects initial revenue in 2027…
$MXL is coming after more of the connectivity market that $CRDO has helped build. Both are putting up strong numbers.Source →