Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit split between valuation passes on Nebius and Lululemon and bull cases on AECOM, Wave Life Sciences and a Brazil runoff trade.
Themes on this desk
Nokia
r/NOK weighed a friend's bull case citing AI data centers, an Nvidia tie and a BofA $16 target against a bearish view that the stock bleeds to $5, and shared a confident Justin Hotard post on strong Q3 results.
Marwynn
r/smallstreetbets said the expense column did most of the work in MWYN's 96% narrower quarterly loss, while another post watched for a close above $2.40 before a possible $2.70 retest.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeNebius at $160 implies roughly $146 a share even after strong growth
The author passes on Nebius at $160 because heavy capex, financing and dilution and a five-times-revenue valuation scenario imply roughly $146 per share.
NUBIUS at $160 ? No thanks .
Growth alone may not reward buyers at current prices.
Source →AECOM is priced as a shrinking business at 10x guided EPS
The author says the market prices AECOM for perpetual shrinkage at 10x guided EPS against 20-23x for peers, while EPS guidance and backlog have held up.
Market is pricing ACM as a shrinking business, without evidence I've been digging into AECOM (ACM) lately.
Remaining risks are AI-driven pressure on hourly billing and two legacy design-build P3 jobs due to finish around March 2027.
Watch Completion of the two legacy P3 jobs around March 2027.
Source →A Flávio Bolsonaro win is the bet behind an EWZ and XP position
The author expects a Flávio Bolsonaro runoff win on October 25 to drive fiscal cuts, lower Brazilian rates and a multi-month equity rally, holding XP, PICS, AGBK and EWZ with an exit if Lula wins.
A BBL, Butt For Your Portfolio 🇧🇷 (EWZ, XP, PICS, AGBK) **TL;DR** Flávio Bolsonaro is very likely to take the
The runoff result is a binary catalyst for Brazilian equities.
Watch The October 25 runoff result.
Source →TSLA calls bet on a SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement within weeks
The author holds 1,100 TSLA January 15 990 calls betting SPCX-TSLA merger terms are announced within weeks, citing midterm political pressure on Elon Musk.
SPCX x TSLA Merger - 1100 TSLA JAN 15 990 CALLS Betting the deal terms are announced in the next
The position needs a deal announcement to pay off.
Watch Any SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement.
Source →Wave Life Sciences is priced only on its obesity miss
The author argues WVE is deeply undervalued because the market is fixated on its obesity miss while ignoring multiple clinical programs, cash and strategic optionality, and discloses a long position.
Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Bull Thesis I was urged by multiple people to turn a comment I made yesterday about
Other clinical programs and cash are the author's case for a rerating.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteAlphabet's AI Ultra bundle is better value than Anthropic or OpenAI offerings
The author argues Gemini/Argon 4 is competitive enough and Alphabet's AI Ultra bundle beats Anthropic and OpenAI offerings on value, expecting Google to win the AI race on spending power.
Google Wins The AI Race (As I Always Thought It Would) I just want to clarify that I use Claude
Bundle value and spending power are the author's case for Alphabet.
Source →A Reddit trader holds 10% of their portfolio in six-month cyber ETF calls
The author is bullish on cybersecurity, citing rising hacking and demand for code review, and holds 10% of their portfolio in six-month calls on BUG and CIBR.
150k in Cyber calls $BUG $CIBR Everything is getting hacked;
The author expresses the hacking view through ETF calls rather than single names.
Source →A daily 0.10-delta SPY put sale had the best Sharpe in a 17,100-strategy backtest
The backtest of 17,100 SPY and QQQ option-selling strategies from 2022 to 2026 found a daily 0.10-delta one-month SPY put sale had the highest Sharpe.
I backtested 17,100 option-selling strategies on SPY and QQQ (2022 to 2026) Backtest of option selling on SPY and QQQ,
It ranks short-premium setups by risk-adjusted return over four years.
Source →Airbnb's hotels, experiences and AI are underappreciated growth levers
The author owns ABNB and views hotels, experiences and services, and AI-driven cost savings as underappreciated growth levers behind its premium valuation over Booking and Expedia.
$ABNB Three Growth Levers: Hotels, Experiences, and AI **Airbnb (ABNB):
The case rests on new revenue lines rather than core lodging.
Source →Lululemon looks cheap for a reason
The author cites product, competition and preference problems behind Lululemon's decline and passes on the stock pending the next earnings report.
Lululemon: Cheap for a Reason? I've followed Lululemon for almost four years.
A low multiple alone does not make the case.
Watch Lululemon's next earnings report.
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