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Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 58 videos · 11 channels
Fed repricing and market gap
2 videos · 3h 11mOctober hike odds collapsed from 70% to roughly 20-30% after Jefferson and Williams pushed back, while Kashkari flagged a record ~90bp gap between the actual 2-year yield (~4.90%) and the dot-implied ~4.00%; oil and France remain the residu
Fed October hike odds collapse from 70% to ~20% after two vice chairs push back
Ruth Carson reported the Fed October hike probability collapsed from 70% earlier in the week to around 20% after both vice chairs (Jefferson and Williams) pushed back against an immediate hike, with core PCE revised down 36bp to 3.0% and running at 2.0% on a three-month annualized basis. Anna Wong said the two vice chairs are the closest people to the chair, implying Powell blessed the message, and that data corroborate a hold.
French OAT-Bund spread posts record weekly widening, breaching 150bp
Bloomberg rates reporter Georgia Hall said the OAT-Bund spread move was on record for the largest weekly move ever, from 120bp a few days earlier to breaching 150bp, with 200bp described as not off the cards.
France spread blowout
1 video · 1h 35mOAT-Bund widened from about 120bp to breach 150bp in a record weekly move, described as ECB-watch territory at 140bp and problem territory at 175-180bp, with Cudmore calling the budget the off-ramp and refusing to buy French debt yet.
French OAT-Bund spread posts record weekly widening, breaching 150bp
Bloomberg rates reporter Georgia Hall said the OAT-Bund spread move was on record for the largest weekly move ever, from 120bp a few days earlier to breaching 150bp, with 200bp described as not off the cards.
Diesel and refined products
1 video · 54mUS refining runs near 98%, a diesel export ban would cut runs and raise gasoline too, Europe is under pressure to release reserves, and China is cancelling fuel shipments to prioritize domestic supply.
Hyperscaler capex growth forecast to slow sharply from >90% to ~30-35%
Garrib notes hyperscaler AI capex grew over 90% year-over-year in 2026 but is forecast to fall to roughly 30-35% next year, and much of the spend is nominal (memory/chip cost inflation) rather than real.
Nvidia's DGX Cloud Lepton evolved from neocloud aggregator to CUDA standards layer
TBPN hosts recount that Nvidia's 2023 ambition to become the 'front door to compute' and aggregate neocloud demand via DGX Cloud Lepton did not displace neoclouds; the product became a unified software/platform layer (GPU node groups, dev pods, batch jobs, inference endpoints, storage, observability) that reinforces the CUDA moat while customers keep direct relationships with GPU owners.
Anthropic unit economics deeply negative at ~$160 compute per $1 revenue
Rob Hadick cites FT reporting that Anthropic's last-year unit economics were roughly $160 of compute for every $1 of revenue, describing the economics as 'deeply deeply negative' even before other expenses and training costs.