Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack provided supply-chain and technology depth: robot power economics, an HBM expert call, Credo's non-AEC growth case, and a geopolitical essay on Iran and the midterms.
Themes on this desk
Robot power supply chain
MPS named the favorite in the group on data-center-driven growth; Electrovaya's DNV-tested cells passed 9,000 cycles at about 87% capacity and Agility's Digit 5 recharges in nine minutes for a 10:1 run-to-charge ratio; Figure's in-house Bot
HBM technology depth
A Micron interface-design expert call examines HBM4, HBM5, TSVs, custom HBM and 3D-stacking, asking what must change inside HBM to make each pin faster and whether a faster logic process alone suffices.
Geopolitics and election risk
Iran's UN delegation offered an off-ramp nearly identical to the June memorandum on a shorter timeline and was rejected, while generic-ballot polling points to Democrats taking both chambers in November.
MPS named favorite in robot power layer; Q2 revenue $981M up 48% with Enterprise Data up 164%
The author calls Monolithic Power Systems probably their favorite business in the group, citing Q2 revenue of $981 million up 48% year over year with Enterprise Data growing 164% to $381 million, and a Q3 guide of $1.14-1.16 billion.
MPS is being pitched as a data-center growth story that also gains optionality from robotics power electronics, so the earnings base supports the thesis even if robot revenue is small near term.
Watch Whether Q3 revenue lands in the $1.14-1.16B guide and whether Enterprise Data growth decelerates materially.
Source →Micron HBM speed work examined via interface-design engineer on HBM4/HBM5, TSVs and custom HBM
An expert call with a Micron interface design engineer covers HBM4, HBM5, TSVs, custom HBM, and 3D-stacking challenges, specifically asking what must change inside HBM to make each pin faster and whether a faster logic process alone suffices.
Per-pin bandwidth, TSV count and base-die logic are the technical bottlenecks that determine HBM roadmap timing and share shifts among Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung; expert-level detail can front-run consensus on HBM4/HBM5 qualification.
Watch Whether Micron's HBM4 qualification and volume timing, and any disclosed TSV/base-die process changes, match the engineer's account.
Source →Credo covered after 20% post-earnings drop, with non-AEC growth drivers framed as mispriced
The author says they covered Credo on September 2 after the stock fell over 20% following Q1 FY27 earnings, and that the earlier piece focused mostly on AECs. This new piece is framed around 'every growth driver outside of AECs' and 'mispriced upside.'
Signals a bull case that the market is valuing CRDO only on its AEC franchise while other growth vectors are underappreciated; if the non-AEC drivers are real, the post-selloff multiple may be too low.
Watch Whether CRDO's next disclosures show non-AEC revenue lines scaling, and whether the stock holds above the post-Q1 FY27 earnings low.
Source →Iran's UN delegation offered an off-ramp deal Trump rejected by Sunday
The article says Iran's delegation at the UN General Assembly offered an off-ramp essentially identical to the Memorandum of Understanding Trump signed last June but on a shorter timeline, and that by Sunday the President announced he would reject it.
Rejecting a previously signed framework removes the nearest visible de-escalation path, extending the geopolitical risk premium in energy and defense-linked assets.
Watch Any renewed negotiation channel or a reversal in US posture; continued rejection with no new talks confirms the escalation bias.
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