Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
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AI capex ROI
1 video · 8mCamacho puts memory cost inflation at the center of AI budgets and keeps about 40% in the AI technology block; Thread Guy reports traders rotating back into memory, DRAM and Micron.
AI labs' slowdown talk is a ROIC defense, not safety
Carlos Camacho (BTG Pactual) argues the public calls by OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI to slow frontier model development are not primarily safety-driven but an attempt to protect returns on invested capital, signaling suppliers they will not absorb runaway input-cost inflation.
Circular AI financing
2 videos · 1h 39mBoyle traced the SoftBank-OpenAI-SB Energy-Nvidia loop and SB Energy's roughly $50bn IPO at about 400x EBITDA with no data center switched on; Elbaor says private credit's boom is over as gates bind.
Circular AI financing: SoftBank, OpenAI, Nvidia, SB Energy loop
Boyle details the chain: SoftBank borrows at junk rates (9.75% on >$11B of new bonds) to fund OpenAI, which leases SB Energy's Ohio campus for 20 years, which Nvidia guarantees up to $105B and fills with Nvidia chips exclusively for 20 years; Nvidia bought $1.5B of SB Energy shares at a 10% discount and will buy another $1.5B at IPO.
BCRED redemption requests hit 10% against a 5% gate
Elbaor cites Blackstone's $82bn private credit vehicle as the bellwether: the gate is 5% but requests came in at 10% of shares outstanding, roughly $8bn, which will be redeemed over time rather than immediately.
Meta's Muse agent hits #1 in app store, drives META up 10%
Jason Calacanis said Muse hit number one in the app store last Friday, was downloaded three million times in roughly 10 days, and META stock rose 10% after the agent's release; he called it the first time tens of millions of Americans get demonstrable value from AI.
FedGuy: Long-end yields driven by global energy shock and hiking central banks, not deficits or AI issuance
Joseph Wang argues the surge in 10- and 30-year yields (30-year TIPS real yields ~3.2%, multi-decade highs) reflects a global negative energy shock with inflation-targeting central banks in hiking mode, and explicitly rejects deficit, strong US growth, nominal GDP, and AI-issuance crowding-out as drivers. He cites German bunds surging despite low debt/GDP and absent negative swap spreads as evidence against supply crowding-out.