Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
The Lumentum memo makes net product mix and dated CPO deliveries the test of a larger position. QTR’s Nike article proposes a strategic acquisition, without reporting an announced deal.
Themes on this desk
Net optical benefit
Outlier Capital argues CPO is positive for Lumentum only if UHP and ELS revenue exceeds lost pluggable sockets; reported high-volume deliveries remain a 2027 milestone.
Conditional additions
The LITE writer already holds roughly 3.5% and would add toward 5.0–5.5% only if at least two operating, price or financing conditions occur.
Nike strategic proposal
QTR proposes Nike acquire Lululemon using cash and more expensive equity. The idea remains an author proposal, with financing and integration risks.
CPO can benefit Lumentum lasers while threatening its pluggable modules
The writer argues that early CPO can be bullish for lasers and threatening for Cloud Light pluggables at the same time. The memo says the net effect is positive only if UHP and ELS revenue exceeds the loss of module sockets; it does not claim that CPO adoption automatically benefits every part of Lumentum's business.
The proposed net benefit depends on product mix and displaced sockets, so growth in one optical category alone would not confirm the whole-company thesis.
Watch Compare disclosed UHP and ELS revenue growth with evidence of lost pluggable-module sockets as CPO deployment advances.
Source →Author proposes Nike acquire Lululemon using expensive equity
Quoth the Raven recommends Nike acquire Lululemon, arguing Nike could use a combination of its still more expensive equity and cash to buy an internationally recognized athletic brand at a dramatically lower earnings multiple, gaining premium women's apparel and international runway.
If such a deal were pursued, it would be a major strategic and capital-structure event for both names, though the author concedes accretion depends on premium, financing, dilution and integration.
Watch Any credible reporting or management commentary on Nike M&A appetite or Lululemon strategic alternatives.
Source →