Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit threads argue over yen carry unwind risk and dismissive AI capex response; highest-engagement cards include ASST squeeze, Visa/Mastercard shorts, and OpenAI threat to Adobe.
Themes on this desk
Yen carry unwind
Threads on Bessent's yen stance and BOJ hikes warn of rapid carry liquidation into US tech.
AI capex skepticism
GOOGL's €13B Finland investment was met with mockery and an $80B market-cap drop in the daily thread.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeVisa and Mastercard face structural decline from sovereign payment rails
Author shorts V and MA (~$122k position), arguing CBDCs like digital euro, India's UPI, and China's CIPS will bypass the duopoly. They claim the moat was geopolitical capture, not technology, and that states are nationalizing payment infrastructure.
short V, short MA long popcorn see you at the shareholder meeting, wagmi (we ain't gonna make it) POSITIONS:
If sovereign payment systems scale, V/MA could lose cross-border fees and network relevance, though timing is uncertain and US dominance remains near-term.
Watch Watch for digital euro pilot progress, CBDC adoption metrics, and any regulatory changes affecting interchange fees.
Source →OpenAI image model release threatens Adobe's Photoshop moat
Post argues OpenAI's ChatGPT Images 2.5 release brings capabilities that could replace Photoshop for many users, or enable small competitors via API to beat Adobe. Features include faster generation, better photorealism, and precise editing.
[https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-images-2-5/](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-images-2-5/) Every single day, we get closer to not having to pay for Adobe Photoshop.
If AI image generation substitutes for traditional editing software, Adobe's creative suite revenue could face structural pressure over time.
Watch Watch Adobe's subscription growth and any product responses; also monitor adoption of ChatGPT Images in professional workflows.
Source →ASST squeeze thesis hinges on FOMC hold and warrant expiry
Post argues ASST, a leveraged bitcoin treasury company, is set up for a short squeeze: 26.5M warrants expiring 10/10 at $27 strike, ~30% short interest with ~8 days to cover, and price pinned near $27. Catalyst is FOMC decision on 9/16; a hold keeps BTC stable, pushing price above $27 and forcing shorts to cover. Risk is a hot inflation report leading to a hike, crashing BTC and making warrants worthless.
**TLDR: $ASST pinned at $27, warrants expire 10/10 same strike, 30% short interest waiting to pop, FOMC hold on 9/16
If FOMC holds and ASST breaks $27, forced covering and warrant exercise could drive a rapid re-rating; if hike, leveraged BTC treasury names face outsized downside.
Watch Watch FOMC decision on 9/16 and whether ASST sustains above $27 into 10/10 warrant expiry; also monitor BTC price and short interest changes.
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