Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X moved beyond generic AI enthusiasm toward contracted inference demand, networking economics and disclosed dip buying, while oil and long yields dominated macro risk.
Themes on this desk
Oil and rates
Oil near $90 and sharply higher September-hike odds made long yields the dominant macro constraint.
Servers and custom silicon
HPE’s inference order and Broadcom’s multiyear targets reinforced demand, while supply and near-term guidance remained the execution test.
Connectivity repricing
Independent CRDO buyers treated the earnings selloff as an entry as specialist work argued networking content is becoming non-discretionary.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Damped Spring rates positioning
The author is positioned for a drift higher in 30-year rates using a long ZB 106 put and short 2 104 puts.
Over the next few weeks I am positioned for a drift higher in 30 year rates done with a long
Indicates a tactical bet on bond market volatility or a potential bond crash, despite current small rates exposure.
Watch Performance of the 30-year bond yield relative to the 104/106 strike range.
Source →HPE AI server demand
HPE reported a multi-billion-dollar server deal with a hyperscaler for inferencing and noted that server demand remains exceptionally high, with pipelines being multiples of current backlog.
$HPE: "we are pleased to report that after quarter end HPE was awarded a multibillion-dollar server deal with a hyperscaler
Confirms strong enterprise and hyperscaler demand for inferencing-specific hardware despite broader supply constraints.
Watch Monitor sequential revenue improvement in AI systems through Q4.
Source →ParadisLabs portfolio additions
ParadisLabs disclosed new long positions in NBIS, INTC, CRDO, BE, and AMZN, citing conviction in AI-related names and opportunistic buying during market dips.
Bought some stocks today...finally. 1. $NBIS - Already a top 10 position for me, but one of my highest conviction
Reflects a strategy of accumulating 'core AI portfolio' names during market volatility, despite the author's belief that semiconductors may have further downside.
Watch Monitor if these positions are held through potential further volatility in the semiconductor sector.
Source →Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) Buy Thesis
The author bought CRDO following an 18% price decline, citing a strong beat-and-raise quarter, raised FY27 guidance, and ahead-of-schedule integration of DustPhotonics.
I just bought the FEAR on $CRDO after an 18% crash.
Suggests conviction in the AI buildout thesis despite margin slippage, which the author attributes to the optical business taking share.
Watch Monitor sequential growth in the copper business and the 2027 ramp of the optical business.
Source →Chevron Venezuela expansion strategy and valuation risks
Chevron announced a $7B, 5-year investment plan to increase Venezuelan production to 600k bpd. The author argues this is likely a gross joint-venture target rather than net economic production, with Chevron's economic interest estimated at 35-40%. The project faces significant risks including revocable US sanctions, undisclosed fiscal terms, and infrastructure deterioration.
significant because it moves the company’s position from a sanctions-constrained harvesting operation toward a multi-year upstream redevelopment platform.
The project is a strategic option rather than a de-risked production asset; mechanical addition of these barrels to production models is inappropriate given the non-equity accounting treatment.
Watch Monitor cash receipts from Venezuelan affiliates and any changes in US General Licenses that could impact diluent imports or crude exports.
Source →