From Soros to Old Farm: How to Identify the Market’s Top Thematic Risk-Takers

Summary

Kieran Cavanna, CIO of Old Farm Partners, discusses his thematic investing approach rooted in finding asymmetric opportunities with domain experts. He emphasizes that AI capex is the main theme, with positions in optical networking, uranium, power infrastructure, and semi cap equipment. He also shares insights on manager due diligence, co-investing, and the risks of concentration.

• Kieran Cavanna describes his experience at Soros Fund Management under Scott Bessent.
• The core investment philosophy is 'make sure the main thing is the main thing', currently AI capex.
• Old Farm avoids owning Nvidia directly but holds derivative plays like optical, uranium, power, and semi cap equipment.
• Optical networking co-invest has been the best performer with names like Ciena, Viavi, and Lumentum.
• Uranium miners and US power infrastructure are key holdings benefiting from AI and grid modernization.
• Kieran tracks hundreds of managers to separate skill from luck and seeks asymmetric risk-reward.
• The firm uses a multi-manager structure with co-investments alongside hedge fund allocations.
• Risks include overconcentration in AI, geopolitical events, and potential excesses in certain pockets.