If Submarine Cables Are Cut, the Middle East Financial Network Collapses and Global Finance Stops | Kim Yeol-su, Head of Security Strategy Office, Korea Institute for Military Affairs

Summary

Kim Yeol-su, Head of Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, discusses Iran's political structure, its confrontation with the US and Israel, and regional security risks across the Middle East. He explains how IRGC dominance and nationalism shape Iran's stance, analyzes the Khorramshahr-4 missile message, and warns about potential attacks on undersea cables, oil infrastructure, and Hormuz transit. He also covers Israel-Hezbollah fighting, Saudi-Iran rivalry, and the legal dispute over Hormuz tolls. The main market implication is a tail risk of disruption to Middle East financial and communications networks with global spillover, including Korea, but no explicit tradable investment recommendations are given.

• Iran's president is described as largely powerless under the Supreme Leader and IRGC.
• US strikes may have strengthened the IRGC by fueling nationalism and suppressing protests.
• Iran's Khorramshahr-4 missile display signals retained capability and warns Europe.
• Undersea cable sabotage in Hormuz could disrupt Middle East finance, communications, and cloud services, with global spillover.
• Oil wells, crude facilities, and storage are cited as Iranian retaliation targets.
• Israel-Hezbollah fighting continues at lower intensity despite a nominal ceasefire.
• Saudi Arabia remains deeply anti-Iran and opposes Iranian control of Hormuz or a nuclear breakout.
• Hormuz tolls are seen as legally untenable and unacceptable to the US.