US Government Interest Costs $1 Trillion Annually... Why September Volatility Is Inevitable / Why We Expect a Bull Market in October | Shin Eol, Team Leader at Sangsangin Securities

US Government Interest Costs $1 Trillion Annually... Why September Volatility is Inevitable / Why We Expect a Bull Market in October | Shin Eol, Team Leader at Sangsangin Securities
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 01, 2026 at 10:00  |  26:25  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Shin Eol — Team Leader, Investment Strategy, Sangsangin Securities

Summary

Shin Eol, Team Leader at Sangsangin Securities, explains why big tech equities are rangebound despite strong earnings, pointing to higher long-term Treasury yields, US fiscal supply, and costly capex financing. He sees Korean memory semiconductors as a positive AI-value-chain exposure but subject to verification. He advises defensive positioning in September and expects a tactical equity rally into October ahead of the US midterm elections.

  • Big tech earnings and AI expectations remain strong, but stocks are stuck in a verification range.
  • Jackson Hole lifted September Fed rate hike odds, and long-term Treasury yields are elevated.
  • US fiscal interest costs are set to exceed $1 trillion annually, adding to long-end supply pressure.
  • Treasury buybacks are seen as rollover rather than a fundamental fix for yields.
  • Korean memory semiconductor earnings are viewed as leveraged to the US-led AI semiconductor value chain.
  • September is treated as a historically volatile period favoring defensive positioning and short-term Treasuries.
  • October is expected to offer a tactical bullish window ahead of the US midterm elections.
Ideas
Shin Eol Team Leader, Investment Strategy, Sangsangin Securities 0:53
Big tech is in AI verification range.
Big tech earnings are strong and AI productivity expectations remain intact, but stocks are rangebound because investor expectations have risen, investors now demand stricter validation of capex monetization, cash flow, debt and financial tables, and macro/geopolitical risks have raised sensitivity; until the verification process passes, the AI narrative alone is not enough to drive prices sharply higher.
US big tech stocks MED
Shin Eol Team Leader, Investment Strategy, Sangsangin Securities 3:23
Long-end Treasuries face supply-driven upward yields.
After Jackson Hole the market prices roughly 60% odds of a September Fed rate hike and at least one hike within the year; 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields have already moved up and remain elevated. Fiscal deficits are making Treasury supply larger while big tech capex is creating heavy corporate bond supply, so investors demand higher term premium on long-dated Treasuries. Treasury buybacks merely roll debt rather than fix fundamentals, and the Fed retains QT optionality, so long-end rates are likely to stay elevated or biased upward.
IEF TLT HIGH
Shin Eol Team Leader, Investment Strategy, Sangsangin Securities 16:26
Korean memory semis ride US AI capex.
Korea is part of the US-led semiconductor belt, and memory semiconductor companies are demonstrating massive profit creation and income transfer from AI investment. If growth remains faster than financing costs and the US AI value chain is validated, the positive view on Korean memory semiconductors can be maintained.
KWEB MED
Shin Eol Team Leader, Investment Strategy, Sangsangin Securities 22:07
Stay defensive in September equity markets.
September is historically prone to volatility and weak/rangebound equity performance because of portfolio rebalancing after summer, an earnings season lull, and a history of Fed taper/rate decisions around September. With midterm elections still two months away, investors should stay conservative in September by securing liquidity and favoring dollar assets and short-term Treasuries over aggressive equity exposure.
SHV MED
Shin Eol Team Leader, Investment Strategy, Sangsangin Securities 22:07
Stay defensive in September equity markets.
September is historically prone to volatility and weak/rangebound equity performance because of portfolio rebalancing after summer, an earnings season lull, and a history of Fed taper/rate decisions around September. With midterm elections still two months away, investors should stay conservative in September by securing liquidity and favoring dollar assets and short-term Treasuries over aggressive equity exposure.
SPY MED
Up Next
6:47
September correction, it doesn't look like it will be as big as expected | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik [What a New Idea / 26.09.01.Tue]
Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) · Sep 01
3:43
Oil Supertankers Reportedly Struck by Projectiles in Hormuz
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 01
20:29
[#EmergencyInterview] Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix are buying back shares aggressively... why are they weak? / In 2 weeks, will the Fed raise interest rates? | Shin Jungho, Head of LS Securities
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Sep 01
41:11
Money hasn't left, it's waiting... Signals that the September stock market's 'self-correction' has begun | Hong Seon-ae, Lee Han-young, Bogo Fund Asset Management Division Head [Yeouido Insight]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Sep 01
3:13
What Could Stop the Bond Market Selloff?: 3-Minutes MLIV
Bloomberg Markets · Sep 01

This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 01, 2026, features Shin Eol discussing US big tech stocks, IEF, TLT, KWEB, SHV, SPY. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Shin Eol  · Tickers: US big tech stocks, IEF, TLT, KWEB, SHV, SPY