JPM's O'Donnell Expects a Pickup in M&A Activity
Summary
- Markets are absorbing significant geopolitical tension (War in Iran) with resilience; VIX spiked but retreated, and credit spreads have only widened marginally (25-75bps).
- There is a structural shift in deal flow: 2025 was driven by refinancing, but 2026 is shifting toward M&A and "Growth CapEx" (specifically data centers).
- A massive divergence exists in credit markets: "Software" is broken. Leveraged loans are down 32bps YTD (dragged by 13% software exposure), whereas the market ex-software is up 28bps.
- Private Credit/BDCs face the highest risk due to heavy software concentration, while the public High Yield market is insulated (only 3.5% software exposure).
Trade Ideas
O'Donnell explicitly states, "I think this year you're going to see a pickup in M&A activity... we have some big M&A driven activity that's coming to market." She notes the forward calendar is "digestible" and includes "chunky" deals. Investment banks generate their highest margin fees from M&A advisory and underwriting complex debt packages for these "chunky" deals. A shift from simple refinancing (low fee) to M&A (high fee) directly boosts the bottom line for major dealmakers. LONG major investment banks as the M&A cycle restarts. Geopolitical escalation (Iran) freezes the deal calendar entirely.
Katherine O'Donnell
Head of North America Leveraged Finance, JPMorgan
She mentions a specific recent trend: "issuance for tracked to fund data center growth... Those are large chunky issuances." Companies do not issue large amounts of debt to build infrastructure unless there is massive, immediate demand. This confirms the "Growth CapEx" cycle is active specifically for data center operators (REITs). LONG Data Center REITs as the primary recipients of this capital expenditure boom. Over-leverage if interest rates spike; oversupply in the long run.
Katherine O'Donnell
Head of North America Leveraged Finance, JPMorgan
She notes a "bifurcated market." The High Yield (HY) market has only "three and a half percent exposure to software," whereas the Leveraged Loan market has 13% exposure. Software credit is toxic right now (loans trading above par in tech are <5%). Investors seeking yield should rotate into High Yield bonds (HYG), which are structurally insulated from the software crash, avoiding the Leveraged Loan market (BKLN) which is being dragged down by tech defaults. LONG High Yield exposure as a "cleaner" bet on credit than loans. Broader economic recession widening spreads across all sectors, not just tech.
Katherine O'Donnell
Head of North America Leveraged Finance, JPMorgan
O'Donnell highlights "jitters around BDCs and private credit disruption" and notes that "private credit has the highest exposure to software." If the software sector is cracking (as evidenced by public loan performance), the Private Credit and BDC (Business Development Company) sectors—which aggressively lent to software buyouts—are sitting on unrealized losses. As these defaults materialize, BDC book values could be impaired. WATCH or AVOID BDCs with heavy technology exposure; monitor for signs of distress spilling over from private valuations. Private credit managers may "extend and pretend," delaying the mark-to-market pain.
