Ideas
AI speed adjustment is not capex cut
Kim argued the market is wrongly equating AI 'speed adjustment' with an AI capex cut. In his view, the debate is really about controlling and securing AI, which would require redesigning logic chips, lifting TSMC foundry demand and increasing memory usage by 15-20%. He said AI hardware fundamentals have not deteriorated and the sharp selloff in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Nvidia, Broadcom, CPU-related names and memory stocks looks like hedge-fund long-software/short-hardware positioning similar to past DeepSeek or AI-bubble scares. He added that the late-July bottom has already passed and memory/AI names such as SK hynix and Micron remain above those lows; only a further 8-10% breakdown would worsen the signal.
Samsung HBM outsourcing lifts back-end suppliers
Kim explained that Samsung Electronics is executing well on HBM and focusing back-end capacity on HBM, leaving less room for general DDR; as a result it is outsourcing more of that work to SFA Semicon. PSK Holdings is also a back-end process beneficiary as Samsung's back-end volumes rise and numbers emerge. Even on a weak semiconductor day, SFA Semicon rose 14% and PSK Holdings about 7% on these company-specific drivers, showing selective alpha within the supply chain.
Software wins if AI capex slows
Kim noted that if AI capex actually stopped, the relative winners would be cash-generative software and AI service/model platforms, including Google and Microsoft, because customers still need to monetize existing AI models. He pointed to the post-scare rotation where IGV/software rose sharply and Google/Microsoft gained, though he did not think this meant the semiconductor/memory trend had reversed. This is a conditional hedge/watch rather than his base case.
Battery earnings expectations are returning
Lee said the Korean battery sector is regaining a narrative as third-quarter earnings expectations attach. LG Energy Solution drew 'finally a surprise' reports, with a target as high as 510,000 won; POSCO Future M rose on a report of an LFP cathode breakthrough; Samsung SDI targets have moved up, and SK Innovation defended its 140,000 won level. This points to selective rotation into batteries on earnings and company-specific catalysts rather than a broad market move.
Humanoid robot parts gain into CES
Lee described fast rotation within Korean robotics from prior leaders into actuator/reducer/hand names. He highlighted Samhyun because it is in call qualification to enter Samsung Electronics' core actuator supply chain and is in contact with Figure AI for a 2027 model, with Samsung expected to unveil humanoid specs at CES. SPG and Wonik Holdings are also part of the actuator/reducer/robot-hand supply chain. The trade is narrative-driven and fast, but the Samsung/Figure AI linkage gives Samhyun a differentiated catalyst into CES.
Clarity Act boosts crypto platforms
Lee argued the Clarity Act is more important than the Fed rate hike because its passage could unlock crypto market structure. He sees a higher chance of passage after a possible deal involving regulation of Trump-related crypto officials; Circle and Coinbase already rose on that expectation. Even if the legislative process takes months, the market may price in passage, and stablecoin growth could add short-term Treasury demand and help stabilize long yields.
KOSPI range-bound, October improvement likely
Lee sees KOSPI trapped in a 6,400-7,050 box after failing three times near 7,050, while lows have held. He said the worst case may be a move toward 6,400, which is not far away, and advised patience rather than chasing fast rotations. He also argued sentiment is much better than early August even with 5% US yields and expects the market to improve more meaningfully from October as major events pass and earnings season begins.
This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published September 15, 2026,
features Kim Jang-yeol, Lee Kwon-hee
discussing SMH, TSM, NVDA, AVGO, MU, 000660.KS, 036540.KQ, 031980.KQ, IGV, MSFT, GOOGL, Korean secondary battery sector, 373220.KS, 003670.KS, 437730.KQ, 058610.KQ, 030530.KQ, COIN, CRCL, EWY.
7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Kim Jang-yeol,
Lee Kwon-hee
· Tickers:
SMH,
TSM,
NVDA,
AVGO,
MU,
000660.KS,
036540.KQ,
031980.KQ,
IGV,
MSFT,
GOOGL,
Korean secondary battery sector,
373220.KS,
003670.KS,
437730.KQ,
058610.KQ,
030530.KQ,
COIN,
CRCL,
EWY
