Bullish Treasuries View Is Contrarian: Markets Analysis

Summary

Mark Cudmore lays out a contrarian bullish call on Treasuries and global long-end bonds for the next couple of months, expecting long-end yields to fall. He cites a shift in oil's risk premium to the downside, a likely Fed hike that restores credibility, attractive yields, and countercyclical pressures from high yields. He also flags fiscal concerns as a potential next-year story that could push yields higher again.

• Mark Cudmore makes a contrarian bullish call on Treasuries and global long-end bonds.
• He expects long-end yields to fall over the next couple of months.
• Oil's asymmetric risk has shifted to the downside after failing to break a recent high.
• A Fed hike is over 90% priced and delivering it may restore credibility.
• AI spending slowdown is discussed as a possible but slow-moving bond catalyst.
• Fiscal concerns are not yet priced and may become a next-year story.
• Higher yields are described as countercyclical because they can hurt stocks and oil.