'I'm Mostly In Cash'; Trader Calls Next Drop For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Kevin Steur

Summary

Kevin Steuer discusses his current market outlook, expecting a summer pullback in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin driven by geopolitical risks and potential Fed rate hikes. He sees deflation signals building, with oil and bond yields peaking, and remains mostly in cash, avoiding many risk assets. He highlights algorithmic weakness in big tech names and gold miners, prefers copper over other metals, and is monitoring semiconductor stocks for future leadership once markets stabilize.

• Algorithm signals: strongest in USD and deflation ETF (BNDD), weakest in crypto, oil, and agricultural commodities.
• Oil has likely peaked for this cycle; lower highs and lows point to further downside unless Iran escalates.
• S&P 500 faces a pullback; key SPY support at 693, below that a larger sell-off could unfold.
• Gold broke below $4,000 after losing 4,719 Fibonacci support; next potential support near 3,800.
• Bitcoin low is not yet in; risks include quantum computing vulnerability and MicroStrategy leverage.
• Big tech stocks AMZN, AVGO, NFLX, MSTR flagged as weakest by algorithm, suggesting underperformance.
• Copper looks better than other metals; chip stocks could lead the next rally once the dust settles.
• 10-year Treasury yield has peaked, supporting bond prices as inflation slows.