Ideas
Supply disruptions to lift material commodities
The Iran conflict and US strikes on Iranian oil assets mean more supply disruptions; many material commodities run through the Strait of Hormuz and have long lead times, so investors should prepare for major commodity supply disruptions.
Oil set to go higher
Oil is set to go higher because damaged infrastructure will take multiple years to repair, most goods are transported by diesel-powered ships, and demand is rising against constrained supply.
Long-end Treasury yields keep repricing higher
Central banks and sovereigns have stepped away from US debt and diversified into gold, while leveraged hedge funds have become the marginal buyer of Treasuries; with the US rolling over about a third of its debt annually and coming to market 444 times a year, long-end Treasury rates are set to keep repricing higher.
Rising long-end rates push real estate down
The long end is the foundation for the price of money, so rising long-end rates increase 30-year mortgage costs and will push the real estate market down while making affordability worse across the economy.
Royalty funding gains as debt costs rise
As long-end debt costs rise, streaming and royalty finance is moving from an alternative form of financing to a material part of the mining capital stack, positioning royalty and streaming companies well for the next mining build cycle.
Central bank diversification pushes gold higher
Central banks continue to diversify away from US Treasuries into physical gold after the weaponization of the dollar, they bought aggressively during gold's drawdown to around $4,000, and gold has broken its downtrend and looks likely to move higher.
Gold miners set to outperform gold
Gold mining equities are in their healthiest financial position ever, with mining margins around 31% versus the market average near 17%, GDX trading at a decade-low trailing PE of about 20x, and the gold-to-XAU ratio breaking out of a 15-year consolidation, signaling mining equities are positioned to materially outperform gold.
US money printing devalues the dollar
The US has the power to print money and will avoid default, but that comes at the cost of currency debasement; foreign central banks are watching and reducing dollar exposure, which supports a bearish dollar view.
Copper is AI's unpriced power constraint
AI is really a power problem before it is a chip problem, with data center power demand expected to double by 2030 and grid upgrades requiring multiple times more copper, while new copper mines take about 18 years versus 18 months for a data center, making copper a binding supply constraint that is not priced in.
Copper equities lag copper price
Copper prices have been rising, but copper equities are still not priced for that copper price or for the extreme supply lead times that keep copper tight, leaving the equities lagging the commodity setup.
Metalla has record growth and discipline
Metalla Royalty is coming off a record Q2 across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and net income, with development assets moving into production and already bought and paid for growth, a strong balance sheet, and management discipline in a frothy market, positioning the company for continued growth.
This The David Lin Report video, published September 09, 2026,
features Brett Heath
discussing DBC, WTI, Long-end US Treasuries, US Real Estate, SIL, GLD, GDX, XAU, USD, COPPER, Copper mining equities, MTA.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Brett Heath
· Tickers:
DBC,
WTI,
Long-end US Treasuries,
US Real Estate,
SIL,
GLD,
GDX,
XAU,
USD,
COPPER,
Copper mining equities,
MTA