Nothing Has Changed at All: What About the Semiconductor Rally? | Son Su-yeon, Hana Securities Yongsan WM Center PB

Summary

Son Su-yeon, a PB at Hana Securities Yongsan WM Center, discusses the September market outlook and says the month is likely a volatile adjustment rather than a fundamental breakdown. She remains positive on semiconductors and cosmetics, especially ODM names, and suggests tactical positions in ESS and nuclear power. She also sees oil as overextended, expects liquidity conditions to be cushioned by TGA and buybacks, and views the US midterm election as a positive resolution catalyst for markets.

• September is framed as a volatility and correction month, not a fundamental breakdown.
• Oil is the key inflation/election variable, with WTI likely to fall from current elevated levels.
• TGA balance near target and buyback flows provide a liquidity cushion.
• Historical midterm-year patterns suggest a market rebound around the election.
• Semiconductors remain a core long on tight memory supply and AI demand.
• Cosmetics exports remain strong, but ODM names are preferred over brand leaders.
• ESS is suggested as a tactical trading sector, and nuclear power is mentioned as a portfolio addition.