U.S. underestimated 'how much pain' Iran is willing to go through, says CFR’s Michael Froman

Summary

• Ceasefire between U.S. and Iran is fragile, with implementation noise and uncertainty about agreed terms, including Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran's demands.
• Underlying issues have almost no overlap between U.S. and Iranian positions, making a comprehensive resolution very difficult.
• Possible outcome is a stalemate or frozen conflict, with periodic violence and no permanent agreement, leaving fundamental issues unresolved.
• U.S. has achieved military objectives like sinking Iranian navy and damaging missile capabilities, but underestimated Iran's willingness to endure pain, citing the eight-year war with Iraq.
• Iran has demonstrated effective asymmetric warfare using a small number of missiles and drones to wreak havoc on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran now holds new leverage by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, akin to U.S. use of the dollar and China's use of supply chains as choke points.
• Critical unresolved issues include Iran's nuclear program, with nearly 1,000 pounds of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium, and future military actions.
• Engagement of allies is crucial for stronger diplomacy, but past U.S. actions like tariffs and lack of consultation have complicated relations.
• Geopolitical risk is elevated for global trade and energy systems, with Iran able to hold the global economy hostage via strategic choke points.