Iran War: US, Iran Prepare for Talks in Pakistan | The Pulse 4/9
Speakers
Summary
- Geopolitical tensions remain high with a fragile ceasefire; U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is set to lead direct talks with Iran in Islamabad. The status of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical leverage point, with Iran asserting control and proposing transit fees/tolls, which international bodies reject.
- Ludovic Subran (Allianz) argues markets got ahead of themselves pricing in a ceasefire. He sees persistent stagflationary pressures due to energy costs and is more cautious on equities than bonds, expecting credit spreads to widen from currently tight levels.
- The AI landscape is moving rapidly with new model releases from Meta and Anthropic. The value is seen as residing in owned datasets. Anthropic's projected revenue run rate is noted as massive relative to large public SaaS companies.
- Anu Talus (EDPB) emphasizes that AI development often involves processing personal data, making GDPR compliance crucial. She argues that regulation and competitiveness are not mutually exclusive, as trust enables adoption.
- Michele Della Vigna (Goldman Sachs) states the energy investment thesis has fundamentally changed: "Everything is changing." He asserts $80 is the new $60 floor for oil, and the expected gas oversupply has been pushed back by at least a year.
- Della Vigna forecasts a major, multi-year revival in energy capital expenditure, particularly in oil services, due to chronic underinvestment and peaking U.S. shale growth. He believes renewables, nuclear, and hydrocarbons are all needed.
- He provides a clear oil price model: each additional month the Strait of Hormuz is closed adds $15-20/barrel, with a one-month closure pushing prices back to $100. A 2007-08 style spike would require ~$200/barrel, which he does not currently foresee.
- Craig Nicol (Sona) argues the "golden age" for private credit is over, entering a period of reckoning. Record redemption requests in perpetual funds mask deeper structural problems.
- Nicol identifies the sector's heavy exposure to "asset-light" businesses, particularly software (~60% of the market), as a key vulnerability. He anticipates higher losses with recovery rates potentially as low as $0.00-$0.30 on the dollar for software names.
- He believes stress in private credit will not be contained and will permeate public leveraged finance markets due to blurred lines between the two, interconnected investors, and shared constituents (e.g., insurance companies).
Trade Ideas
The speaker stated "Everything is changing," and that the oil price will be "at least 20 dollars higher than previously expected. $80 is the new $60." The structural underinvestment in hydrocarbons, combined with peaking U.S. shale growth and increased geopolitical risk, creates a persistent supply-side constraint that justifies a higher long-term price floor. The fundamental outlook has rebased, supporting a structurally higher price. A rapid and sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz coupled with a severe global economic downturn that destroys demand.
The speaker said oil services present "such an exciting setup" and will be "the most exciting part of the energy space in the coming years." The sector has consolidated and taken capacity out after 15 difficult years. The new paradigm of higher-for-longer oil prices and peaking shale growth will drive a major, sustained rebound in energy capital expenditure, directly benefiting service providers. Positioned to be the primary beneficiaries of the coming capex cycle revival. A collapse in the oil price thesis below the new $80 floor, delaying or canceling investment plans.
The speaker argued the private credit market is entering a "period of reckoning" with record redemptions masking bigger structural problems, notably ~60% exposure to asset-light software businesses. The sector has not been tested through a full cycle. High exposure to software, which is vulnerable to AI disruption and has low tangible assets, will lead to higher default rates and very low recovery rates (potentially $0.00-$0.30 on the dollar). The asset class faces significant embedded losses and structural stress, making it unattractive and risky. A much softer economic landing than expected, allowing software portfolio companies to maintain growth and service debt.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 09, 2026, features Michele Della Vigna, Craig Nicol discussing WTI, OIH, XLF. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michele Della Vigna, Craig Nicol · Tickers: WTI, OIH, XLF