Япония сбрасывает Облигации США | Еженедельник Investor+
Speakers
Dmitry Solodin
— Trader / Investor
Summary
Dmitry Solodin reviews Japan's record FX intervention and potential yen carry-trade unwind after Japanese reserves and US Treasury holdings fell. He then covers USD/JPY's 150 level, rising JGB and US yields, TLT weakness, and the risk of forced liquidation across global assets. The weekly review also discusses dollar-ruble, bitcoin, gold, oil, copper/FCX, S&P stress signals, and Russian MOEX/RTS indexes.
- Japan sold about $80B of reserves and spent a record ~$100B on yen intervention, reducing US Treasury holdings.
- USD/JPY 150 is treated as the key line; below it signals serious carry-trade unwind risk.
- JGB 10-year near 3% and 30-year near 4%; a BOJ hike to 1.25% is priced, supporting capital repatriation talk.
- US long yields are rising and TLT is falling on Japanese Treasury selling and US fiscal deficit pressures.
- Gold positioning is subdued; an aggressive flush lower could create a medium-term long setup.
- FCX was exited on a copper chart diagonal/fourth-wave concern.
- S&P stress is not extreme but the correlation component is rising, so he remains long but hedged.
- MOEX shows a bullish breakout-test setup; RTS appears to be a large triangle likely resolving upward longer term.
Ideas
Below 150 signals serious carry unwind.
Japan drew down FX reserves by about $80B in August and spent a record ~$100B on yen intervention, selling US Treasuries and converting dollars into yen. The carry trade is vulnerable because a stronger yen or higher JGB yields can force margin-call liquidation of dollar assets. The 150 level in USD/JPY is the signal line: above 150 is normal, below 150 opens serious carry unwind and forced yen buying.
Higher JGB yields trigger capital repatriation.
BOJ rates and JGB yields have moved up: 10-year near 3%, 30-year near 4%, and market fully prices a September hike to 1.25%. After decades of near-zero yields, Japanese investors can now earn about 3% on domestic sovereign bonds without currency risk, which is shifting the narrative from intervention to capital repatriation and can support demand for Japanese assets.
Japanese and fiscal supply pressure TLT.
Japan's reserve sales are adding supply to US Treasuries exactly as US deficits, refinancing, and heavy issuance keep pressure on long yields. The 20-year yield has risen to about 5.2%, so TLT keeps falling; if Japanese selling continues, yields can keep climbing. TLT is below the 100-90 resistance zone and remains vulnerable; he is out.
Yuan becoming funding currency; panda issuance grows.
China's deflationary pressure keeps rates low, making the yuan cheaper to fund than the dollar. He sees the yuan as a candidate to replace the yen as a funding currency, and European banks and insurers are already issuing panda bonds in China; if Japanese and US yields keep climbing while Chinese rates stay low, this trend can strengthen.
Bitcoin squeezed; key breakout decides direction.
Bitcoin has likely broken resistance, but he does not trust an immediate rally; he prefers triangle or flat scenarios between two large volume clusters. The previously broken trend line is the key level: above it opens upside, below it leaves the door open for a downward continuation. Watch the retest of the breakout.
Gold ranging; aggressive flush creates long setup.
Gold futures positioning shows both longs and shorts contracting and open interest near a low percentile, consistent with a fourth-wave consolidation. The best medium-term long setup would be an aggressive flush lower that forces long liquidation and builds short positions, setting up a short squeeze and fresh long demand. No such extreme exists yet, but it is worth monitoring.
Exited FCX on diagonal fourth-wave risk.
He exited FCX after a successful trade because the copper chart has a characteristic diagonal pattern and he fears another down leg as a fourth wave. Copper's physical deficit reduces downside, but FCX is still sensitive to cyclical/recession fears, so he prefers to avoid it for now.
Stress rising; hedge longs, watch levels.
The systemic stress index is not at extreme stress, but the 1-month correlation component has risen from single-digit to 23rd percentile, indicating stress is building beneath the surface even with VIX low. He holds at least 50% long but is actively hedging. A break of the high opens further upside; a break of the lower level targets the cluster below, so watch key levels and the stress exit signal.
MOEX breakout-test setup supports upside.
The MOEX Russia index executed a textbook breakout-test-continuation setup: price broke resistance, retested it as support, and turned higher. He sees the wave structure supporting further upside, with the ideal macro confirmation being rising oil and a weakening ruble.
RTS large triangle likely resolves upward.
RTS likely remains in a large triangle fourth wave with lower highs and higher lows; the medium-term resolution is most likely upward, but timing and exact wave format are uncertain and dollar-ruble moves complicate the dollar-denominated index.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published September 07, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing USD/JPY, JGBUX, TLT, CNY, BTC, GLD, FCX, SPY, MOEX Russia Index, MOEX:RTSI. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: USD/JPY, JGBUX, TLT, CNY, BTC, GLD, FCX, SPY, MOEX Russia Index, MOEX:RTSI