Ideas
Small caps poised for multi-year leadership
Expects healthy 2.5% U.S. GDP growth and further rate cuts to create a good environment for small caps. The long-awaited profits recovery, cheaper valuations, significantly underweight fund manager positioning, a historically long decade of small-cap underperformance, and U.S. reshoring/capex trends support a potential multi-year period of small-cap leadership. Lower tariffs or an IEEPA reversal would help smaller companies because they have thinner margins and are more hurt by high input costs.
Microcaps stretched; avoid
Avoids microcaps because they became the most stretched and expensive segment of small caps after strong 2025 outperformance, and she expects them to give back some of that outperformance even though other pockets of the Russell 2000 are not that expensive.
Large-cap banks benefit from capital markets
Expects a year of positive earnings revisions for large-cap banks as capital markets backlog—M&A, equity capital markets, IPOs—and loan growth drive revenues into 2026. Multiples look relatively high versus history, but significantly higher capital levels make the industry less risky and justify a premium multiple; she is not calling for multiple expansion but expects stocks to perform in line with estimate revisions.
BNY, State Street AI beneficiaries
Overweight BNY and State Street because she expects positive operating leverage, partly driven by AI rolling through their business models; these trust banks are skewed to being beneficiaries of AI.
Super regionals need loan growth
She is equal weight on super regional banks because these models need more loan growth acceleration to drive more positive estimate revision expectations; she prefers large-cap banks where capital markets are driving revenues.
Runa Alam
Co-Founder and CEO, Development Partners International
24:32
Africa offers compelling investment opportunity
Bullish on African investments because macro fundamentals are improving: inflation has fallen in many countries, devaluations have turned into appreciations, dollar weakness should support African currencies, GDP growth may outpace Asia, and African stock markets have shown strong growth and successful IPOs. Tariffs have little impact because only about 4% of African exports go to the U.S.
Runa Alam
Co-Founder and CEO, Development Partners International
28:24
African fintech digitalization drives IPOs
Sees more African IPOs in fintech and digitalization, with digitalization a major venture-capital and private-equity theme across sectors, including app-based revenue migration and microcredit companies turning into fintechs; AI will come to Africa with a lag.
Small-cap earnings rebound strong
Expects very strong earnings growth from small caps this year, with Russell 2000 earnings growth potentially around 45%, about three times the S&P 500, although the base is very weak. Rate cuts would be a huge benefit for small caps, especially the roughly one-third of Russell 2000 companies that are non-earners and highly reliant on debt.
Emerging markets favored over Europe
More positive on emerging markets than Europe; EM was the strongest performer last year, inflation is under control, growth numbers look solid, and while multiples may be high in some markets, earnings growth is strong.
Europe less attractive after multiple expansion
Less positive on Europe's index because much of last year's growth came from multiple expansion rather than fundamentals, leaving question marks; he prefers emerging markets and other global equities.
Positive on global equities broadly
Pretty positive about all global equities because the whole world looks like it is having strong growth and manageable inflation, with generally positive conditions across equities worldwide.
Bullish on multifamily residential
Very bullish on residential real estate generally because there is a global affordability crisis and insufficient supply. She focuses on multifamily for-rent development, where the asset class is established, exits are more certain, the market is liquid, and urban population density and job growth create demand.
Construction financing offers strong returns
Sees an opportunity to provide residential construction financing because lending standards are very tight, and stepping in to get more money into the system to build new homes can generate strong investor returns while helping address the supply shortage.
Build-to-rent demand remains strong
Likes build-to-rent single-family housing because many families are forced renters after post-GFC mortgage standards tightened, creating a large demand pool for safe, affordable, desirable rental housing; she prefers this to scattered single-family rentals but still sees a place for both.
Data center supply chain attractive
Likes data centers, especially the hyperscaler facilities on the outskirts where development yields have compressed and stabilized purchases are expensive but insurance capital fits. She is also looking at the co-location and carrier-hotel layers closer to the urban core that are required to move data from hyperscalers to end users.
NYC housing recovering gradually
New York City residential real estate had a good 2025 recovering from a challenging 2024, with more people entering the market. Prices have been fairly flat, and she expects inventory to increase only gradually—slow and steady progress rather than an explosive rebound—with lower rates likely bringing more buyers and sellers.
IMAX 2026 slate looks stronger
Bullish on IMAX into 2026 because the 2026 film slate—including Avatar, a new Mandalorian Star Wars movie, The Odyssey, Narnia with Netflix, and Dune 3—should have a bigger impact than 2025. IMAX is a diversified global platform with only about one-third of revenue from North America, record alternative content, more filmmakers using IMAX cameras, and a recession-resistant business model.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 09, 2026,
features Jill Carey Hall, Betsy Graseck, Runa Alam, Berkeley Belknap, Elizabeth Bell, Bess Freedman, Rich Gelfond
discussing IWM, IWC, KBE, BNY, STT, KRE, AFK, African fintech, African digitalization, EEM, VGK, VT, U.S. residential real estate, Multifamily housing, Residential construction financing, Build-to-rent housing, Single-family rentals, DTCR, Carrier hotels, New York City residential real estate, IMAX.
17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jill Carey Hall,
Betsy Graseck,
Runa Alam,
Berkeley Belknap,
Elizabeth Bell,
Bess Freedman,
Rich Gelfond
· Tickers:
IWM,
IWC,
KBE,
BNY,
STT,
KRE,
AFK,
African fintech,
African digitalization,
EEM,
VGK,
VT,
U.S. residential real estate,
Multifamily housing,
Residential construction financing,
Build-to-rent housing,
Single-family rentals,
DTCR,
Carrier hotels,
New York City residential real estate,
IMAX
