Can US Stocks Defy September Headwinds? | Presented by CME Group
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Summary
US equity markets are facing multiple headwinds: a 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.75%, geopolitical risk in the Middle East supporting oil prices, trade friction with Canada and other partners, and September seasonal weakness for the S&P 500. Despite these pressures, the S&P 500 remains less than 2% below its record high, though it is early in the month and unclear whether the market can withstand these issues longer term.
- 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.75%, near the high end of the year's range.
- Higher yields raise discount rates and pressure growth-oriented technology names hardest.
- Middle East conflict has run longer than expected, keeping a floor under energy prices.
- Trade friction with Canada and other partners adds policy risk to the market.
- September is historically the weakest month for the S&P 500.
- The S&P 500 remains less than 2% below its record high despite these headwinds.
- The month is early and it is uncertain whether markets can withstand these pressures longer term.
Ideas
Higher yields pressure growth technology names.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.75%, near the high end of the year's range. Higher yields raise the discount rate on future earnings, which pressures growth-oriented technology names hardest—the same names that have carried the index for most of the last three years.
Middle East conflict floors oil prices.
The Middle East conflict has run longer than most expected, keeping a floor under energy prices and adding uncertainty that compresses how much investors will pay for future growth. This supports oil prices.
S&P faces September seasonal headwinds.
September has historically been the weakest month for the S&P 500, and the market is simultaneously facing rising yields, geopolitical risk, higher oil, and trade friction. The index remains less than 2% from its record high and the month is early, so it is uncertain whether it can withstand these pressures, but the seasonal and macro headwinds warrant monitoring.
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