Everything Is Now Bullish for Treasuries: 3-Minutes MLIV

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 14, 2026 at 07:10  |  3:03  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist

Summary

Mark Cudmore argues that Treasuries are at a bullish turning point as multiple factors align: a likely Fed hike is priced, oil is at cycle highs with downside risk, and an AI CapEx slowdown could hurt US growth and jobs. He also sees the AI CapEx slowdown as a developing risk that may signal the start of a bubble bursting, with confirmation likely delayed until October earnings. Cudmore expects a flatter Treasury curve and views oil's risk as skewed to the downside.

  • AI CapEx has been the dominant market theme, driving US GDP, jobs, and Taiwan/Korea equities.
  • An AI CapEx slowdown could be a major market moment and the start of a bubble burst.
  • Cudmore sees Treasuries at a bullish turning point.
  • A Fed hike is now heavily priced after CPI, likely flattening the curve.
  • Oil has priced an Iran-related premium and is at cycle highs.
  • Oil's asymmetric risk is to the downside.
  • 10-year yields at highs with bearish sentiment reinforce the bullish Treasuries setup.
  • Confirmation of an AI CapEx slowdown may only come in October earnings.
Ideas
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 0:16
AI capex slowdown risks bubble burst
AI CapEx has been the most important market theme for two years, driving US GDP, jobs, and stock markets from Taiwan to Korea. If recent signals indicate even a slowdown in AI CapEx, it could be a major market moment or the start of the bubble bursting. Confirmation may only come by October earnings as leaders deny cuts until forced.
AI capex EWT EWY HIGH
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 1:51
Multiple catalysts make Treasuries bullish
Cudmore sees a real bullish turning point for Treasuries. An AI CapEx slowdown would be bad for US growth and the job market, creating a bullish impetus for bonds. At the same time, a Fed hike is now 87% priced after CPI and likely this week, which would flatten the curve; oil is at cycle highs with asymmetric downside risk; and 10-year yields are at highs with everyone bearish and eyeing 5%. This juxtaposition of factors is turning bullish for Treasuries simultaneously.
TLT HIGH
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 2:16
Fed hike likely flattens curve
A Fed hike post-CPI is now 87% priced, meaning a hike this week is likely. Cudmore argues Warsh cannot afford to surprise the market that much, which would lead to a flattening of the curve.
US Treasury yield curve flattener MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 2:40
Oil cycle high, downside risk
Since Trump's speech about the Iran situation potentially lasting until midterms, an extra premium has been priced into oil, pushing it to cycle highs. At these highs, the asymmetric risk is to the downside, even though the path is uncertain.
WTI MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 14, 2026, features Mark Cudmore discussing AI capex, EWT, EWY, TLT, US Treasury yield curve flattener, WTI. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Cudmore  · Tickers: AI capex, EWT, EWY, TLT, US Treasury yield curve flattener, WTI