Name: Rates Quiet for Now, Commodities Volatile: 3-Minute MLIV
Uploaded: 2026-01-16T09:31:24+00:00
Duration: 212 s

Speakers

Skyler Montgomery Koning — Macro Strategist

Summary

The segment focuses on low volatility in rates and elevated volatility in commodities. The 10-year Treasury yield is range-bound due to unclear economic data and Fed pricing, while geopolitical hedging flows support gold and keep oil volatility high. The guest says US equities can grind higher unless yields rise on risk premia, and flags intervention risk in USD/JPY above 160.

Rates volatility is compressed, with the 10-year yield stuck in a range since September.
Government shutdown and unclear data have kept Fed rate expectations steady, with no cut fully priced until July.
Geopolitical uncertainty is driving hedging demand in commodities.
Gold is favored as a hedge amid weekend event risk.
Oil volatility stays elevated given uncertain supply impact and a 2026 glut.
US equities are seen grinding higher if yields rise for growth reasons.
USD/JPY is on intervention watch above the 160 level.

Ideas

Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 0:22

Ten-year yield range-bound, volatility compressed.

The 10-year Treasury yield has been stuck in a range since September because the government shutdown has obscured economic data and rates are driven by Fed expectations. With no clear read on the economy and no Fed cut fully priced until July, there is little to shift rate pricing, so rates volatility remains compressed but is likely to pick up at some point.

Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 1:16

Commodity volatility stays elevated.

Geopolitical plays are showing up in the commodity market as investors use commodities as a hedge amid a lack of certainty. Weekend event risk and potential announcements could keep commodity volatility elevated, especially given uncertain oil price impacts and a 2026 supply glut.

Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 1:41

Gold favored as geopolitical hedge.

With geopolitical uncertainty and weekend event risk, people are likely to keep positioning in gold as a hedge, supporting the metal as a safe-haven allocation.

Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 1:45

Oil volatility elevated on supply glut.

If a geopolitical event materializes, the impact on oil prices is uncertain, and the countries involved have relatively little supply compared with a 2026 supply glut. That combination keeps oil volatility elevated.

Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 2:15

US equities grind higher, don't sell.

The sensitivity of US equities to higher yields depends on why yields are rising. If yields rise because of strong growth and a strong earnings season, that is equity positive; equities can keep grinding higher and should not be sold without a very good reason.

Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 2:52

Watch USD/JPY intervention above 160.

The speaker is on intervention watch for the Japanese yen. Verbal intervention can precede actual intervention, and as USD/JPY moves above 160, there is a risk that speculative positioning builds for a large move, so the level needs close watching.

Rates Quiet for Now, Commodities Volatile: 3-Minute MLIV

Summary

Ideas

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