Markets Are ‘Breaking Apart’: What It Means For Gold, Silver, Oil In 2026 | Ole Hansen
Summary
- Gold is currently trading around $5,000/oz (in this 2026 scenario), with Saxo Bank raising their 12-month target to $6,000 due to sovereign debt concerns and central bank diversification.
- A "speculative frenzy" has occurred in Silver, pushing it briefly to $100 before correcting; Hansen warns of industrial demand destruction at these price levels.
- US Equities are undergoing an "aggressive rotation" away from the "Mag 7" (which are flat year-to-date in this timeline) toward Emerging Markets and Europe, as AI profitability expectations were priced in too aggressively.
- Oil is trading in the $60s, which Hansen views as unsustainable long-term due to depletion rates; he forecasts a move back to $80-$90 to incentivize necessary production investment.
Trade Ideas
Silver rallied vertically to ~$100 driven by a "speculative frenzy" and call option buying, but Hansen notes that "silver cannot go much higher before industrial demand starts to be negatively impacted." Unlike Gold (monetary asset), Silver is an industrial input. If prices stay too high, factories stop buying, creating a natural ceiling. Hansen prefers Gold over Silver at these elevated levels. Neutral. The "easy money" has been made, and the plumbing of the market is fragile. A "short squeeze" on the COMEX due to low registered inventory could force prices higher despite fundamentals.
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank
Gold has stabilized around $5,000. Hansen states, "6,000 is within reach in the next 12 months" and cites ongoing sovereign debt worries and interest rate cuts as drivers. While the asset is technically overextended in the very short term (22% above 200-day MA), the macro drivers (fiscal dominance, central bank buying) remain intact. The "dip" is a consolidation phase before the next leg up to $6,000. Long-term hold/accumulate on dips. A deeper short-term correction if prices drop another $1,000 to reconnect with moving averages.
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank
Oil is trading in the $60s. Hansen notes that "depletion rates in the order of 6 to 8 million barrels on an annual basis" require massive investment, which current prices do not support. The market is currently complacent due to ample supply, but the lack of CapEx now guarantees a future supply crunch. Prices must rise to the $80-$90 range to make production viable for energy companies facing inflation. Long. The structural deficit is being ignored for short-term political reasons (US midterms). Political intervention to keep prices low during election cycles; demand destruction from a recession.
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank
Hansen observes an "aggressive rotation" where investors are moving "away from the US stock market" because the "Mag 7 are basically flat on the year." The US market priced in AI perfection too early. Capital is now flowing into undervalued jurisdictions that were previously ignored, specifically Emerging Markets and recovering sectors in Europe. Long non-US equities to capture the rotation flow. A global recession would likely hurt EM/Europe more than the US due to the dollar smile theory.
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank
Hansen argues the market "run ahead of itself in terms of how much the AI rollout is going to mean to profitability." The realization that AI monetization will take longer than 6-12 months is causing a repricing. With the Mag 7 underperforming relative to the broader market, the momentum trade in US Tech is broken. Avoid. The risk/reward is poor until valuations reset to match actual AI earnings. A sudden breakthrough in AI productivity could reignite the mania.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published February 16, 2026, features Ole Hansen discussing SLV, GLD, USO, XLE, EEM, VGK, QQQ. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ole Hansen · Tickers: SLV, GLD, USO, XLE, EEM, VGK, QQQ