US Dollar Climbs Ahead of Warsh; Anthropic Restrictions Lifted | Bloomberg Brief 7/1/2026

Summary

Global markets open the third quarter with the dollar strengthening ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first public appearance at Sintra. The U.S. lifts export restrictions on Anthropic's Fable 5 AI model, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warn of a looming oil glut. Oil drops after positive signals from U.S.-Iran indirect talks. Collin Martin of Charles Schwab expects 10-year Treasury yields to remain elevated near 4.5% despite recent dips, citing fiscal and inflation concerns.

• Dollar climbs as traders watch for Warsh's remarks on monetary policy and productivity
• Anthropic resolves safety concerns, clearing its Fable 5 model for global distribution
• Goldman Sachs projects a 3 million bbl/day oil surplus next year once Hormuz flows normalize
• U.S.-Iran indirect talks deemed positive, easing geopolitical risk premium on crude
• 10-year Treasury yields unlikely to stay lower; structural factors keep yields near 4.5%
• Japan's yen slides further, raising intervention risk ahead of a thin holiday market
• European bonds sell off, with UK long-end underperforming on defense spending concerns
• Challenger job cuts decline, reinforcing a stable-to-stronger U.S. labor market picture