Ideas
Expect Treasury curve to steepen
The Fed signalled policy is not restrictive and may hike again, but UBS thinks the curve still prices too much tightening. Supply shocks drove inflation higher this year and should fade, so underlying inflation is not a problem. With monetary policy expectations the main driver, UBS expects more Treasury curve steepening, with the long end anchored at a high level.
Add duration in German Bunds
Central banks globally have priced in too much tightening. In Germany, tightening expectations are more likely to weigh on growth than in the U.S., so UBS feels better about adding duration in Germany.
Oil price spike risks pressure bonds
Near term, the bigger bond-market risk is the oil market. With no clear end to the war and no near-term insight, oil prices could move higher and pressure the yield curve, especially with the Fed chair concerned about supply shocks and broadening inflation.
Mandy Xu
Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, Cboe Global Markets
10:59
Tail hedges position for VIX spike
Over the past few weeks there has been a pickup in hedging and steepening skew. A notable customer spent over $12 million in premium positioning for a VIX spike above the mid-30s over the next month. The catalyst is more likely macro/geopolitical than the midterm elections, and tail hedging has increased into year-end.
Mandy Xu
Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, Cboe Global Markets
12:52
Single-stock option premiums to widen
The last earnings season saw a record premium for single-stock volatility versus index volatility. In a higher-rate environment, dispersion historically rises as investors pick winners and losers. She expects that single-stock options premium to widen again into the next earnings season.
Global tightening pressures 10-year yields
Hawkish BOJ and BOE plus worldwide central bank tightening, including BOJ renormalization, are putting upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. If all central banks are raising the tide, it becomes harder to keep a lid on the 10-year yield or see short-end spreads open because the Fed and BOJ are raising rates.
Generac taps AI data-center power demand
Generac's deal to supply up to $18 billion of generators for Amazon data centers is transformational because data centers need enormous power and backup power to avoid billions in risk. It opens the floodgates to other hyperscalers and shows Generac tapping the AI data-center power theme, though execution and delivery risk remain.
Favor commodities, avoid fixed income
A new secular regime resembles the 1960s-1990s, with higher inflation volatility and bond yields driven more by inflation than growth, weakening the diversification benefit of bonds. She is neutral equities, less favorable on fixed income, and more favorable toward commodities.
Favor commodities, avoid fixed income
A new secular regime resembles the 1960s-1990s, with higher inflation volatility and bond yields driven more by inflation than growth, weakening the diversification benefit of bonds. She is neutral equities, less favorable on fixed income, and more favorable toward commodities.
Macerich sees strong traffic and leasing
Macerich is seeing strong traffic, the highest back-to-school traffic in four years, selective but spending customers, and strong leasing demand with 950 stores committed and 850 already committed. The company raised $1.6 billion of equity, has a flush balance sheet, is trying to buy properties, and feels secure despite tariff, war and rate noise.
High-quality mall landlords benefit from demand
There is unprecedented retailer demand for brick-and-mortar space and a shortage of high-quality retail space. Retailers want to partner with better landlords and avoid over-levered, deteriorating malls, supporting well-located, high-quality mall landlords.
LuxExperience top customers remain resilient
LuxExperience's top customers are highly resilient; about 4.8% of customers drive 48% of business and are growing. Mytheresa grew 39% in the U.S. in the past quarter. The company is asset-light, ships to 170 countries, and can shift marketing resources to the U.S. as the best luxury market.
High-end luxury resilient; middle tier risky
The luxury market is polarized: top customers continue to spend massively and their wealth is tied to stock markets, commodities and real estate, making them resilient; middle-class customers are more hesitant. This favors high-end luxury over mid-tier luxury.
U.S. is best luxury market
At this point the U.S. is probably the best luxury market in the world. Mytheresa grew 39% in the past quarter. There are tariff headwinds, but they are reflected, and the company can shift marketing dollars to the U.S. because of less footfall in Asia.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 17, 2026,
features Phoebe White, Mandy Xu, Vincent Reinhart, Norah Mulinda, Liz Ann Sonders, Jack Hsieh, Michael Kliger
discussing U.S. Treasury curve steepener, German Government Bonds (Bunds), WTI, VIX, Single-stock options, 10-Year Treasury Yield, GNRC, DBC, TLT, MAC, High-quality mall REITs, LUXE, High-end luxury goods, U.S. luxury market.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Phoebe White,
Mandy Xu,
Vincent Reinhart,
Norah Mulinda,
Liz Ann Sonders,
Jack Hsieh,
Michael Kliger
· Tickers:
U.S. Treasury curve steepener,
German Government Bonds (Bunds),
WTI,
VIX,
Single-stock options,
10-Year Treasury Yield,
GNRC,
DBC,
TLT,
MAC,
High-quality mall REITs,
LUXE,
High-end luxury goods,
U.S. luxury market
